Africa is and will be the largest supplier of oil to Europe until 2035, if the market of the countries The EU will not return Russian raw materials. This is stated in the OPEC forecast until 2050.
"After the introduction EU ban on Russian oil imports, share of barrels from Russia and the Caspian region in imports decreased, they were replaced by supplies from the USA and Canada, Africa and the Middle East. In 2024, Africa was the largest supplier of crude oil to Europe with a volume of about 2.6 million barrels per day,"OPEC reports.
Cartel analysts predict that from 2030 to 2035, imports of crude oil and condensate to Europe from Africa will increase to about 3 million barrels per day.
In the long term, OPEC expects imports from Africa to gradually decline to about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2050, which corresponds to an overall decline in crude oil imports to Europe.
EU imports from the Middle East are projected to increase from 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2030 and gradually to 2.9 million barrels per day by 2050.
"This growth is expected to be partly due to a decrease in the availability of crude oil from other regions, including Africa, as well as Russia and the Caspian region. Imports from Latin America are projected to decline from 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2030. Crude oil and condensate flows from the USA and Canada's exports to Europe were close to 2 million barrels per day in 2024," OPEC analysts wrote.
They note that imports have increased in recent years, as European refineries have been looking for a replacement for Russian oil.
"However, the supply of light low-sulfur oil does not meet the European demand for petroleum products, so imports from the United States and Canada is projected to decline in the long term, reaching 0.4 million barrels per day in 2045 and beyond," OPEC continued.
They estimate that imports to Europe from Russia and the countries of the Caspian region will amount to approximately 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 and consists mainly of non-Russian supplies to various EU countries.
"This is a significant decrease compared to 3.5 million barrels per day recorded in 2021, and is due to the embargo The EU on the import of Russian crude oil. In the future, according to forecasts, imports from Russia and the countries of the Caspian region (mainly from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan) will decrease slightly to just under 1.7 million barrels per day in 2030 and will gradually decrease to 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period," the cartel added.
However, OPEC analysts noted that the forecast may change, as the situation with Russian oil exports to Europe is not clear. Its deliveries were banned on December 5, 2022.
"A possible agreement to end the conflict in Eastern Europe may also contribute to the restoration of Russian oil supplies to some European countries. This may have implications for the structure of European imports in the long term, potentially leading to a reduction in imports of similar crude oil from other regions, such as Africa and/or the Middle East. However, a return to the pre—conflict level is unlikely, given the changing structure of demand in Europe and new long-term trade relations between market participants in Europe and/or Russia," OPEC said in its forecast until 2050.