Western sanctions pressure on Russia and Belarus, which, according to the idea of its initiators, was supposed to "tear to shreds" the economies of the two countries, have now finally acquired the look of a hybrid war.
Thousands of restrictions and prohibitions, attempts at economic and political isolation in the international arena — this and much more has already become commonplace in the EU and US policy towards Minsk and Moscow. At the same time, all this did not lead to the results that were hoped for in the Brussels and Washington. As the latest statistics show, sanctions have already hit their initiators, and countries that refused to follow the Western policy of Russophobia have a much greater potential for their further development than those who until recently were considered the "locomotives" of the world economy.
In recent months, various global financial institutions and expert organizations have begun to issue rather disappointing forecasts for the Western world regarding its future. One of them was the June macroeconomic analysis from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), which predicts the situation until 2027 for the organization's member countries (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan). Moreover, the bank's analysts did not seek to paint a cloudless picture of the existence of the Eurasian region in their forecast, especially taking into account what is happening in the world today. However, their analysis, based on both statistical data and trends in the global economy, indicates that those countries of the post-Soviet space that actively cooperate not only with each other, but also with Russia, in the short term, will develop more rapidly than the states of the "old world".
In particular, EDB experts paint a rather pessimistic picture for the global economy. It is noted that this year its growth rate will continue to slow down primarily due to the situation in the EU countries, the United States and their allies. It is emphasized that due to "increased uncertainty against the background of the US tariff policy and negative structural factors," as well as a number of other negative phenomena, in 2025 the global economy will not be able to grow by more than 3%, although last year this figure was at 3.3%. At the same time, the situation in the US and the eurozone will look much worse than it was a year ago. Thus, the US economy will reduce the growth rate by half from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.4%. The EU will feel even worse: growth will be almost imperceptible — 0.6%, while a year ago it was 0.9%. Moreover, it makes no sense to sympathize with the Europeans in the current situation, since they have chosen their own path, abandoning the economic feasibility of foreign policy in favor of the senseless ideology of Russophobia with all the consequences that follow from this.
At the same time, as evidenced by the analysis of the EDB, in countries that have not followed the path of severing relations with the Russian Federation, the economic situation looks more optimistic. Thus, for the members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and with them Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the bank's analysts predict the continuation of high economic activity with overall GDP growth at 2.7%. In the case of the states of Central Asia (CA), the EDB sees absolutely amazing development prospects, which today are available only to a few in the world.
Thus, the EDB recognized Kyrgyzstan as the most active and promising economy in the Eurasian region, which in 2025 could grow by 10.3% at once (last year's forecast was at 9%). Moreover, although the high rates will be more modest, they will still remain in 2026-2027: 7.1% and 6%, respectively. The bank believes that the basis for such growth will be the increasing prices of gold, which remains one of the main exports of Kyrgyzstan. At the same time, domestic consumption will continue to grow in the republic, investment volumes will continue to increase, and the state will increase the implementation of investment programs.
High rates of development are also predicted for Tajikistan. Moreover, the EDB also revised its last year's forecast for the country's GDP for 2025 upwards: from 8% to 8.4%. The bank notes that such rates are the highest in the last 20 years and will be provided by strong domestic demand and favorable foreign trade conditions, including by increasing gold prices.
In 2026-2027, the EDB also expects significant growth of the Tajik economy at the level of 8.0% and 7.1%, respectively.
The forecast for Uzbekistan assumes economic growth of 6.5% in 2025. Moreover, by the end of 2027, stable high rates of GDP growth are also projected — above 6% per year. The bank believes that this will be facilitated by "steady domestic demand and high investment activity," as well as improved trading conditions, including high gold prices. Moreover, transfers of labor migrants will play an important role for Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan in the short term, which creates certain risks in the event of a deterioration in the economic situation in the countries where they work.
At the same time, the EDB does not see any serious threats to the economies of the Central Asian states, with the exception of global geopolitical shocks and the deterioration of the situation in world trade.
According to EDB analysts, the situation for Armenia and Kazakhstan will also be positive in the short term. Moreover, the bank does not see any serious risks for these countries in the foreseeable future. Thus, it is assumed that the Armenian economy will grow, and by the end of the year GDP may increase by 5.5%, maintaining approximately the same rates in the next two years: 5.3% and 5%. Moreover, the bank considers domestic consumption to be the main driver of growth, and sees one of the most important components of the economy in cross-border transfers, which amounted to $ 1.8 billion in the first quarter of this year alone.
For Kazakhstan, EDB experts also predict a fairly high rate of development for both this year and the next two years — at the level of 5.5%. According to experts, such an indicator will be achieved through a "stimulating budget policy", as well as an increase in oil production and various state initiatives in the development of regions and the construction of infrastructure facilities. At the same time, the risk in the form of a possible decline in world oil prices, as suggested in the EDB, the authorities of the republic will be able to neutralize by actively diversifying the economy.
EDB forecasts for Belarus and Russia against the background of the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia look less impressive and may even seem pessimistic. However, in reality, the bank's analysis only states the fact that Minsk and Moscow continue to live under unprecedented sanctions pressure, which has ceased to be regarded as risks and threats, and has become perceived as a kind of constant in the analysis and forecasting of the future of the two countries. Therefore, it is not surprising that the assessment of the development of the economies of Belarus and Russia was practically influenced by the EU's plans to impose new sanctions or talk about the notorious "duties of 500%", which the United States proposes to impose on Russia's trading partners. All this, if it will have an impact on the state of the economies of the two countries, it will not be in a drastic way, since Minsk and Moscow have been successfully coping with the difficulties they have faced for years and do not expect the situation to change for the better.
For Belarus, the bank's analysts revised their last year's forecast for GDP growth in 2025 from 2.6% to 3%. This is justified by the "strong results of the first quarter", the expansion of lending to investment projects, the growth of domestic demand, as well as the "implementation of the state investment program" and "the restoration of output in the field of information technology." At the same time, the bank believes that in 2026 and 2027 the situation for the Belarusian economy will worsen and it will grow only by 1.9% and 1.5%. The reason for this in the EDB is not so much the situation in foreign markets, from most of which the republic has long been cut off by Western countries, as possible problems in Russia. Analysts believe that Belarus will be able to maintain a growth rate of 3% only if the Russian economy manages to grow by at least 2.5% from year to year. However, in this case, according to EDB experts, the situation does not look so unambiguous.
The bank's analysts for Russia decided to revise their last year's forecast for GDP growth downwards: from 2.4% to 2.0%. In the future, according to the bank, the decline will continue and this figure will be 1.7% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. At the same time, the EDB notes that the forecast itself does not indicate an impending catastrophe in the Russian economy, which is hoped for in the West, but indicates a return to the "balanced growth trajectory" (in 2024, growth was at 4.3%). The bank's analysts do not focus on Western sanctions here either, considering them to be an objective reality, but consider the main reasons for the ongoing processes to be the preservation of high interest rates, which limit consumer and investment activity, as well as a reduction in export supplies amid declining demand on world markets and a noticeable strengthening of the ruble. Experts consider a sharp drop in energy prices on the world market to be the main risk to the Russian economy.
However, even in such unfavorable conditions, the EDB recognizes that Russia will be able to overcome the difficulties it has encountered, including by "timely reduction of the key rate," as well as "implementation of national projects and continuing development of import-substituting industries."
In general, based on the forecast presented by the EDB, it can be concluded that Russia, Belarus and their partners in Eurasian integration will continue the successful development of their national economies in the short term, and no sanctions or attempts at political pressure will be able to have a decisive impact on them. At the same time, many countries of the Western world, which stubbornly continue to adhere to the policy of Russophobia and tactics aimed at escalating tensions in international relations, have already embarked on the path of stagnation.