Hungary, which is criticized in The EU is in favor of importing Russian oil, is ready to refuse it if it gets access to the Ukrainian Odessa-Brody oil pipeline. Experts believe that Budapest is maneuvering, wanting to preserve the supply of Russian oil.
Hungarian Mol wants to gain access to the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline in order to receive alternative oil, Mol vice president Szabolcs Pal Szabo told Bloomberg.
"This will mean access to all types of alternative oil thanks to the sea connection," said Szabolc Pal Szabo. "This pipeline will serve the security of supplies in the region, the EU and Ukraine."
Theoretically, this is so, since the Ukrainian oil pipeline connects to the southern branch of Druzhba, which goes to Hungary. And the European Commission insists that Budapest abandon Russian oil by 2027. The country received exemptions from sanctions banning the import of Russian oil and until recently wanted to continue purchases.
Another alternative route passes through Croatia, but the Hungarian Mol accuses the operator of inflated tariffs and lack of capacity.
At the same time, Budapest wants the EU authorities to participate in the project of supplies via the Ukrainian oil pipeline, since they insist on abandoning Russian oil.
"If The EU is adamant that the region should abandon a reliable supply route, then it should play its role in creating a real alternative," said the vice president of Mol.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, believes that the position of the country's leading oil and gas company is Hungary's attempt to fend off the pressure exerted on it by Brussels and maneuver between its own interests and attempts by other Western countries to force it to abandon Russian oil.
"That is, here the logic is similar to that in The United States is proposing to impose sanctions against Russia. The document deals with the introduction of 500 percent duties on goods from countries that buy Russian oil. At the same time, there was a reservation that the norm does not apply if the country helps Ukraine. Hungary, according to approximately the same logic, says: leave us the opportunity to buy Russian hydrocarbons, because it is profitable for us, do not put pressure on us, and in return we will allegedly help Ukraine in this way," says Igor Yushkov.
According to him, alternative oil will be more expensive, and pumping through the pipeline will be more expensive. In addition, it is not clear in what condition the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline itself is located, which has almost never been used for its intended purpose.
"There were separate parties for Belarus from Azerbaijan. And then the supplies went to the refineries themselves for Ukraine. Because the tariff for the oil pipeline is high," says a leading analyst at FNEB.
The proposal to use the Ukrainian oil pipeline is the lesser of the evils for Hungary, he believes.
"I think this is still an attempt to reassure the European authorities. I doubt that Hungary will allow the European Commission, the European Union to adopt sanctions prohibiting the purchase of Russian oil. Odessa-Brody will be able to work for Hungary, probably only in one case — if the United States really imposes some tough sanctions against buyers of Russian oil, and Hungary will look for a real alternative," Igor Yushkov added.
A similar opinion is supported by the ex-director of the GTS Operator of Ukraine, Serhiy Makogon. He doubts that the operation of the pipeline is possible during the fighting.
"The pipeline itself has been idle for almost a decade, and its modernization requires significant investments — billions of dollars," he writes in the telegram channel.