Washington is seriously concerned about the prospect of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is not in a hurry with this, sending signals to the team of President Donald Trump that it is possible to climb the ladder of escalation gradually. But the risk of an oil shock forces the US administration to literally ask Iran not to block the strait. Political scientist Malek Dudakov writes about this in his telegram channel with reference to the American media.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative ways of supplying oil to world markets bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. For example, the Emirates are able to send about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day from the current 2.7 through the port south of the strait. But there are no other options for Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Iran will also be able to supply something, but not very much, the expert points out.
21 million barrels of oil and 10 billion cubic meters of gas flow through the Strait of Hormuz every day. Wall Street predicts a rise in oil prices to $ 130 and above if the strait is closed. A lot of people will experience shock — from China, Japan, South Korea to Britain and the European Union.
"But it cannot be said that it will be painless for the United States. After all, 7-10% of Saudi oil still enters the American market. The rise in oil prices will cause an energy crisis in the States in the spirit of 2022, when the cost of a gallon of gasoline on average jumped to $ 5. And in problem states like California, it almost reached double digits," the political scientist notes, recalling that the ratings of the now former US President Joe Biden then collapsed to 30%.
As Dudakov emphasizes, the same thing will be waiting for Trump, since the American electorate does not forgive the sharp rise in fuel prices to any president. In addition, the Federal Reserve System (FRS) already predicts stagnation in the US economy with growth of just over 1% in 2025. And the oil shock will probably drive it into recession. These risks are forcing the Trump team to fuss, otherwise the current escalation may eventually bury the Republicans themselves.
EADaily adds that after the US strikes on nuclear facilities, the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's oil products traffic passes. At the same time, Ismail Kousari, a member of the Iranian National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, stressed that the final decision on this issue will be taken by the country's National Security Council. In turn, the commander of the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Alireza Tangsiri, said that the Strait of Hormuz "will be closed in a few hours."
Earlier, such a proposal was voiced by the adviser to the Supreme leader of Iran Hossein Shariatmadari. He called for blocking one of the key routes of global oil trade for American, British, German and French shipping, and also advocated missile strikes on US Navy ships based in Bahrain. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who arrived in Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin for consultations on the situation in the Middle East, also admitted the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.