Russia is increasing its military presence near the more than 1,300-kilometer border with Finland, causing concern in European capitals about its future plans. The NATO newcomer, in turn, is making active efforts to strengthen its own borders, including increasing defense spending and conducting large-scale joint exercises with allies in the North Atlantic Alliance.
At the end of last month, a series of publications appeared in the Western media devoted to the disclosure of Moscow's "insidious intentions" on the northeastern flank of NATO. It was pointed out that attempts to negotiate a cease-fire on the In Ukraine, Russia is "quietly rearming" along the longest line of direct territorial contact with NATO at the moment — the 1,340-kilometer border that it shares with the new member of the alliance."
Recent satellite images show that over the past few months, Russia has strengthened its military presence along the border with Finland, which violated a long-standing policy of neutrality by joining NATO in 2023, according to a publication on the France 24 website. The French TV channel referred to photographic materials published by The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. and allegedly confirmed by officials in NATO. The pictures "show rows of new tents, new warehouses that can be used to store military equipment, and recently renovated shelters for combat aircraft."
In Kamenka (Vyborg district of the Leningrad Region), located just 60 kilometers from the border with Finland, more than 130 military tents have been set up since February 2025. The area, which had not yet been built up in 2022, is now apparently capable of accommodating up to 2,000 Russian military personnel, American publications shared their assumptions. According to them, about 160 kilometers from the border with Finland, three large facilities have also been built, each of which is capable of storing more than 50 armored vehicles.
The attention of Western observers was also attracted by the reconstructed Severomorsk-2 military airfield in the Murmansk region.
"Until 2022, a regiment of unmanned aerial vehicles operated there in the field. But the airfield was not used for larger equipment, such as helicopters," said Finnish expert Emil Kastehelmi, who worked on satellite images as part of a team of analysts called the Black Bird Group. "But now, after 2022, they are restoring it, reconstructing it, clearing overgrown areas, so it seems that they also intend to intensify their activities in this area."
"We see military activity, and we see how the Russians are developing their military infrastructure… But at the moment it's not something too radical," Castehelmi added.
Finland has applied to join NATO in 2022. A year later, in April 2023, she officially joined the alliance. Then neighboring Sweden decided to take a similar step, further expanding the line of "direct contact" of NATO with Russia.
While publishing alarmist reports on Russia's military buildup on NATO's northeastern flank, Western publications at the same time emphasize that such "preparations are significantly inferior to what was observed on the border with Ukraine before the invasion in February 2022." However, expert assessments are also given, according to which "movements may be the first signs of an irreversibly growing Russian military presence along the Finnish border in the coming years."
For Moscow, the border with Finland is of great strategic importance. The Russian army considers its strengthening critical for the defense of St. Petersburg and the adjacent northwestern region of the Russian Federation. And Finland, France 24 noted, "can play a key role in any future conflict between Russia and NATO."
"In the long term, Russia simply needs to take defense on the border with Finland more seriously when it is a NATO member. If NATO and Russia will start a war in In the Baltic states, the Finns will not just sit back. They are likely to counterattack and annex the Kola Peninsula, and the Russian nuclear forces and the Northern Fleet are based in Murmansk. So the Finns can do quite a lot to prevent this by cutting the supply lines between St. Petersburg and Murmansk," says Ed Arnold, senior researcher on European security at the British Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI).
His Finnish colleague Kastehelmi, meanwhile, draws attention to the fact that "it is not yet clear whether the Finnish-Russian border can become the site of a new hot spot after the end of the war in Ukraine."
"It's hard to say yet, because the war on Ukraine is still going on, and reaching a truce seems extremely difficult," he said in an interview with France 24. — The future will show how much the Russians will invest in all this: military bases, new units, and so on. But as far as we know now, it will be significant."
Russia's military buildup on the border also fits into the framework of growing geopolitical rivalry in The Arctic, which is becoming more and more strategically important, since the northern latitudes are rich in energy resources and key shipping routes will pass through them in the future. Last month, American and Finnish troops participated in large-scale exercises throughout the Nordic countries, simulating a full-scale conflict with Russia. And last November, thousands of NATO troops took part in large-scale artillery exercises in the Arctic territory of Finland.
After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, Finland redoubled efforts to modernize its army and provided the Kiev regime with several weapons aid packages.
The Northern European country aims to increase its military spending to 3 percent of GDP by 2029. Finland also plans to raise the upper limit of the age of its reservists to 65, which will give it a million citizens capable of being mobilized by 2031 — almost every fifth Finn. In early April of this year, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that the country would withdraw from the The Ottawa Treaty on the Prohibition of Anti-personnel Mines (Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-personnel Mines and on Their Destruction), following similar steps by other countries bordering Russia. Formerly Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia decided to withdraw from the list of participants in this international convention, citing "growing threats" from Russia.
Western military experts in this regard note that the decision of Warsaw and the three Baltic republics was made under the impression of two important lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: the enormous influence of unmanned systems and minefields (barriers) on the course of hostilities. Finland in this regard — preparing for a "mine war" and the active use of drones — was no exception. Moreover, calls are heard inside the country to be ready to "confront the Russians alone."
"The position (of the Finns) has traditionally been that we should be ready to confront the Russians alone. This is their thinking, this is how their army is organized. They can get 284,000 soldiers when declaring war (based on the results of general mobilization. — Ed.). This is essential. This is probably more than the UK can collect, perhaps more than Germany, more than France. Perhaps more than anyone else (among the European members of NATO. — Ed.), with the exception of Poland at the moment," said Ed Arnold.
According to him, Finland not only has the most powerful artillery in the European Union, but also "huge stocks of weapons and ammunition." The Finnish army has at its disposal an impressive number of self-propelled artillery installations, including 155-mm South Korean K9 Thunder, as well as American M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).In addition, this year the Finns will be able to put into operation the first fifth-generation F-35 fighters purchased from the United States, which are currently the most expensive and technically sophisticated combat aircraft in the world. Back in 2021, the Finnish government placed an order for $ 9.4 billion from the American corporation Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the F-35, for 64 fighter-bombers to upgrade its F/A-18 fleet.
Finland by all indications does not consider itself an "easy target" for Russia and in fact will not be such in the event of a potential direct clash between the two countries.
"This is probably one of the most equipped forces (in NATO) not only for conventional, but also for hybrid deterrence,— said Ed Arnold. "The Russians would be stupid if they decided to go against the Finns as an act of deliberate policy."
Even if there is a large-scale redeployment of the Russian armed forces to the border with Finland after a possible ceasefire on It seems likely to Ukraine that active NATO countermeasures in the form of "remilitarization" of the entire eastern flank of the alliance, including its northern sections, "probably made the task extremely difficult for Moscow."
"Now it's not just about Baltic States — Russians need to provide resources for the entire border with Finland, as well as the border with Ukraine, wherever it passes. In the end, more forces will be needed, but these forces will be much more scattered," concludes the RUSI expert.
A year ago, the estimates of Finnish military sources were more restrained regarding the Russian army conducting an offensive operation on the northeastern flank of NATO.
Russia is "scaring NATO countries with a third World war," but, at least near Finland, it does not seem to be preparing for an armed conflict. This was reported on June 19 by the Yle Broadcasting Corporation, citing a "high-ranking source in Finnish military intelligence" and accompanying his statements with satellite images.
The garrisons and military bases of the Russian ground forces near the Finnish border have not been strengthened, although Russia has previously stated that it would do so, the publication said. The interlocutor of Yle explained the situation on the Russian-Finnish border by the fact that "about 80 percent of the equipment and personnel" of the Russian Armed Forces have been transferred to the Ukrainian front.
"We mainly followed the army brigades," the source of the publication clarified, while stating that the concentration of the Russian army in the Ukrainian direction did not lead to a weakening of the air defense system in the St. Petersburg area.
Earlier in the same month, in June 2024, it was reported that Finland plans to strengthen its coastal defense by acquiring more than a dozen self-propelled artillery systems to protect the country's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.
At the end of 2023, plans voiced by the Russian leadership to recreate the Leningrad Military District were met with great wariness in Helsinki. Similar concerns in the Northern European country are still relevant today. In the Finnish and other Western media, the opinion is widely presented that the Leningrad Military District is intended to become a base for Russia's confrontation with NATO, since The Russian Armed Forces are building military facilities there and upgrading railway lines in border areas. New communications are being laid along the borders with Finland and Norway, as well as to the south of From St. Petersburg to the border with Estonia.