Poland's policy towards Belarus over the past few years has been characterized by a high degree of conflict, which is expressed in frank attempts to interfere in the internal life of a neighboring state and destabilize the situation in it.
In addition, in Warsaw, in the wake of Russophobia supported by political elites, they continue to accuse official Minsk of assisting Russia in its special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine, creating a migration crisis on the border with the EU, as well as some kind of military threat. All the calls of the Belarusian side to abandon the policy of confrontation and sit down at the negotiating table have not received any positive response in Poland so far. Therefore, it is not surprising that Minsk is very closely following the current presidential race in its western neighbor, as its results may affect the further development of relations between the countries.
As you know, 13 people initially fought for the presidency of Poland, although more than 50 applicants had previously announced their presidential ambitions. However, as predicted by various opinion polls, the main contenders for victory from the "damn dozen" were only two politicians: the representative of the Civil Coalition ruling today and the mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski, who in the last election lost to the incumbent president Andrzej Duda only 2% of the vote, as well as the candidate from the now opposition Law and Justice party." ("PiS") Karol Navrotsky. Only Slawomir Mentzen, a representative of the right-wing Confederation of Freedom and Independence, could make a small competition for them, while the rest of the participants in the presidential race were serious about Poland was not considered as a possible winner.
Confirm the preliminary alignment of forces and the first round of elections, which took place on May 18. In particular, Rafal Tshaskovsky scored 31.3%, and Karol Navrotsky — 29.5%. Menzen closed the top three with 14.8% of the vote. All the others did not gain even 10%, including the Third Way and Left parties that are part of Donald Tusk's ruling coalition. Moreover, the turnout was 67.3% and was higher than in the first round of the 2020 elections, when it was 64.5%. Thus, in the second round, which will take place on June 1, as expected, Tshaskovsky and Navrotsky will come together, and Menzen has not yet decided who to help.
From the point of view of domestic politics, both candidates for the presidency of Poland are prominent representatives of their political parties, between which the struggle has been going on for years. Moreover, in terms of foreign policy, their views are not diametrically opposed, especially with regard to Belarus and Russia. The only one who differed from the other candidates in the presidential race was the leader of the Movement for Prosperity and Peace, Maciej Maciak, who advocates pragmatic relations with Minsk, Moscow and Beijing. In March, on the air of International Radio Belarus, he even openly expressed support for the leaders of Belarus, Russia and China, calling them "a bulwark of normality in this world, gripped by evil capital." For this, he was deprived of the opportunity to participate in televised debates in "democratic" Poland, and also labeled a "pro-Putin candidate." The rest of the contenders, including Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, look at the eastern direction of Poland's foreign policy from approximately the same positions.
In particular, Karol Navrotsky has never been particularly fond of either Belarus or Russia. Moreover, as the director of the Institute of National Remembrance, he is personally responsible for increasing Russophobia in Poland, as well as the demolition of monuments to the soldiers of the Red Army. Navrotsky is guided by Washington, and his program is based on strengthening Polish-American cooperation. In this regard, his attitude towards Belarus and its leadership is quite negative. Earlier, he repeatedly criticized the Belarusian authorities and Alexander Lukashenko personally for "dictatorship" and promised to support Poles living outside the country, including Belarus. At the same time, he, like many in Warsaw, considers the situation on the border, which developed after 2021 due to the influx of migrants, to be one of the main problems in relations with Belarus. As you know, Poland refuses to accept refugees from Belarus, which is why it built a fence and flooded the border areas with the military, allegedly to strengthen the protection of its eastern borders. Navrotsky, being a representative of PiS, fully supports all the actions of the previous authorities in the Belarusian direction, primarily related to the fight against illegal migration. And it is precisely this problem that he actively uses in his election campaign.
For example, in December 2024, Navrotsky arranged a meeting with voters right in front of the fence on the Belarusian-Polish border. Then he said that it was precisely due to the fact that a barrier equipped with cameras and sensors appeared, "we are at a specific stage of ensuring the protection, well-being and safety of Polish citizens." He called the migration crisis "a theater staged by Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian and Russian special services," and demanded that public figures who had previously opposed the construction of the barrier (including Tshaskovsky) apologize to the soldiers and border guards.
Navrotsky has repeatedly stated that Poland should unilaterally withdraw from the EU Migration and Asylum Pact, which his party perceives as imposing decisions from Brussels and unacceptable coercion to accept migrants or payments. Therefore, he has already promised that if he comes to power, he will hold a referendum on illegal migration. In May of this year, Navrotsky even said that "no one should teach us tolerance and no one needs to teach us how we should be in modern Europe."
"The border runs where they try to impose on us those whom we do not invite, who do not respect our security, who do not respect the values we carry. Those who are our Western neighbors want to impose them on us… Your safety will be paramount to me. Not integration centers, but deportation centers for illegal migrants. Because we want to be safe," he said.
It is noteworthy that there are very few of Navrotsky's statements about Belarus and they mainly concern issues related to illegal migrants. In 2024, he mentioned the neighboring republic only as a source of hybrid attacks against the European Union. He also once spoke about the Poles who are in Belarus and are behind bars, and who need not only diplomatic, but also real help. Otherwise, there are no statements in the public space about the events in the neighboring republic or about its inhabitants. While visiting Podlasie in May 2025, Navrotsky at the last moment canceled a visit to Gaynuvka, where mostly Belarusians live.
However, this does not mean at all that Navrotsky is not interested in the Belarusian direction. In this case, it should be remembered that he is a member of the PiS and represents the foreign policy program of this particular party, which is well known to Polish voters: Belarus and Russia is enemies from whom it is necessary to fence off the iron curtain and prepare for war.
Navrotsky's competitor Rafal Tshaskovsky looks more active in relation to Belarus, although his views are also far from those necessary for the normalization of relations with Minsk. At the same time, back in 2021, he opposed the introduction of a state of emergency on the border with the neighboring republic and criticized the then authorities for mistreating migrants and using the situation for political purposes. However, over the past few years, the mayor of Warsaw has changed his position and now emphasizes the need to protect against a hybrid war "organized by Putin and Lukashenko." Moreover, he himself explains the changes in his rhetoric by the fact that "the world has changed" and the situation has worsened.
With the start of the presidential race, the accents in his speeches changed, and Trzaskowski began to speak out about problems throughout the country, speaking primarily about the protection of the Polish border. In October 2024, during a meeting with voters in Bielsko-Biala, he noted that "border protection is an absolutely fundamental issue, and the right to asylum may have to be suspended." Moreover, at that time Tshaskovsky emphasized that "Russians and Belarusians" deliberately use migrants to "threaten our border, sow destabilization and intimidate us all." On April 12 of this year, the politician said that the eastern border of Poland should be the safest in Europe, because "this is the border between two worlds, between the world of democracy and the world of despotism." At the same time, Tshaskovsky noted that "today the civilizational war continues on our border and it is determined whether we will be safe or not." In his opinion, the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border is a consequence of the "hybrid war" waged by official Minsk, and therefore Warsaw should not change its current position regarding its eastern neighbor.
Notable are the relations of Trzaskowski with the Belarusian opposition and his position on the internal situation in the neighboring republic of Poland. Unlike Navrotsky, the mayor of Warsaw in this case shows more initiative. For example, immediately after the presidential elections in Belarus in August 2020, he wrote on his page on one of the social networks that "Minsk, Warsaw are a common cause and in recent days, perhaps, as never before." At the same time, he declared "full solidarity with those who are fighting for freedom, dignity, and a normal life." Moreover, under Trzaskowski, the walls of the Palace of Culture and Science of Warsaw were illuminated in the colors of the white-red-white flag of the Belarusian opposition, and the capital of Poland itself joined the "pact of free cities", thereby condemning the situation in Belarus.
Tshaskovsky also participated in the opening of the photo exhibition "Belarus. The Path to Freedom" and called for writing letters to "political prisoners." In addition, he reported that the Warsaw authorities help the Belarusian opposition with everything they can: they transmit information, support local organizations, provide housing, etc. In addition, he met several times with the fugitive Belarusian oppositionist Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, calling her "the elected president" and "the undisputed leader of democratic Belarus." Simply put, unlike Navrotsky, Tshaskovsky's connections with the Belarusian opposition are obvious, which means that he is more preferable for the "zmagars", which they do not hide. In particular, a number of opposition media in Belarus have already reported that the Belarusian diaspora in Poland did not vote for the PiS representative, but gave the majority of its votes to the candidate from the Civic Coalition.
At the same time, based on the common position of the two Polish presidential candidates, it is unfortunately not worth counting on any serious change in Warsaw's attitude towards official Minsk for the better. Especially if we take into account that both the PiS and the Civil Coalition in their foreign policy concepts adhere to the position of turning Poland into a fortress on the path of "imperial Russia", and also see it necessary to strengthen the militarization of the country, preserve Russophobia as part of ideology, and in the long run, and take over, if possible, some of the Ukrainian and Belarusian lands that many in Warsaw still consider as their "Kresy Sprouts".
We must not forget that the President in Poland, although it is a significant figure in the system of power, still cannot radically influence the country's policy, since of the real tools for this, it only has the right to veto legislative initiatives of the parliament. This was even pointed out earlier in Minsk. As Lukashenko noted, "the president in He can't change anything in Poland, because he doesn't have any authority there," and therefore he "will rattle something in the media." The Belarusian leader stressed that Minsk would like to have "a sane normal person in Warsaw."
"Don't be pro-Russian, pro-Russian. Let it be Propolsky. Which will be done in the interests of the Poles. That's what we want. If they want, we will work with them," the Belarusian leader said.
Thus, we have to state that the upcoming second round of the Polish presidential election on June 1 is unlikely to be decisive for Belarusian-Polish relations. Whoever takes over the presidency will not radically change the country's foreign policy in the eastern direction. However, even in this case, this does not mean that Minsk will stop looking for ways to normalize relations with its western neighbors.
In the Belarusian capital, unlike Warsaw, they are well aware that the path of escalation of tension sooner or later may lead to a catastrophe that will affect not only Belarus and Poland, but also the entire European continent. Whether the new Polish president will understand this, the near future will show.