President Donald Trump said that the United States may withdraw from the negotiation process on Ukraine if one of the parties sabotages it. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio added that the United States has been helping Ukraine for a long time, but now they need to focus on something else — if Kiev and Moscow are serious about peace, then the United States is ready to help, otherwise Washington will "do something else."
Many Western experts agree that these statements by Trump and Rubio are an element of a strategy of pressure on Ukraine and its patrons from Britain and the EU, in order to make them more accommodating when concluding a peace treaty. After all EU and Ukraine is afraid to be left alone with Russia. Moreover, the US withdrawal from the negotiation process will mean the defeat of the Trump administration in the diplomatic field, especially against the background of the fact that the truce in the Gaza Strip has not been extended. Political opponents will accuse Trump of populism and weakness.
Of course, Trump needs success, especially against the background of a drop in his ratings due to tariff wars. It is not for nothing that after the statement about the possible withdrawal from the negotiation process, the American president wrote on the social network that he hoped that the deal on Ukraine would be concluded in the coming week.
But this does not mean that Trump and Rubio are bluffing. If the talks in London, where representatives of Ukraine and the Europeans on the one hand and the Americans on the other will discuss issues of possible peace, what will the United States do? They may start to abstract from the Ukrainian issue. Of course, the White House will not be able to get out of the process without political and image losses, but endless negotiations in Washington may be considered a great evil. Trump's team will need to save face. The failure of the negotiations in London will present such an opportunity. The White House will be able to say, "We did everything we could. We have other things to do besides Ukraine." What consequences will this have? It all depends on which path Trump and his team will take. There are several possible options.
A return to Biden's politics
The White House will declare Russia the main culprit for the failure of the negotiations and will gradually return to the policy of the previous administration of Joe Biden — military and economic support for Ukraine. Although probably not as large-scale as it was before. To implement this scenario, several geopolitical puzzles must be formed. USA and Ukraine will sign a subsoil deal beneficial to Washington and companies close to the Trump team will receive profitable economic facilities in Ukraine. The failure of negotiations with Iran, in which Russia can play the role of mediator. The failure of almost all of Trump's geopolitical initiatives, both in the Middle East and the Pacific. The defeat of the United States in the tariff war with China. The weakening of the positions of the Trump team and its desire to improve relations with the Democratic Party.
If all this happens, then a rollback to Biden's policy is possible, as is the cessation of dialogue with Russia. This will lead to a prolongation of the armed confrontation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. However, such a policy of Washington will lead to an escalation of the conflict on It can lead to the expansion of the participants in the conflict and the involvement of NATO countries in it. Trump himself and his associates have repeatedly spoken about the desire to avoid a Third World War. In light of this and the fact that too many puzzles have to be put together for this mosaic, such a scenario does not seem to be the most realistic.
Business only
It seems more plausible that the United States will choose the principle of "business, nothing but business" in relation to Ukraine. Then Ukraine will sign a subsoil deal with the United States, and in exchange Washington will sell weapons to Ukraine for Europeans' money. That is, the EU will finance the American military-industrial complex. Will European politicians do it? Yeah. European liberals are permeated with such a level of Russophobia and irrationalism that they will be ready to cut social benefits to their citizens in order to arm Ukraine.
This is beneficial to Trump, American arms manufacturers will be able to make good money. The United States, using the European liberals' fears of Russia, will be able to blackmail them with its withdrawal from NATO and, accordingly, persuade the EU to make economic concessions. The deterioration of the economic situation in Europe will contribute to the growing popularity of conservatives, whom the Trump team wants to see at the helm in the EU.
If the liberals completely fail the economic policy, then even politically motivated decisions of the European courts will not be able to stop the parade of victories of right-wing candidates. At the same time, the White House can maintain a dialogue with Russia on economic and Middle Eastern issues. Perhaps, for the sake of Moscow, Washington will agree not to supply certain types of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this case, help The EU will allow Ukraine to hold out for some time, but the Europeans will not be able to replace the United States and give all their money to support Ukraine. By the middle, at most by the end of 2026, Ukraine will be defeated and will probably cease to exist as a state.
The US withdrawal is completely out of the Ukrainian case
The United States may completely abandon all support for Ukraine, including the sale of weapons to it and the provision of intelligence information. This can happen with the combination of the following events. USA and Ukraine will not sign the subsoil agreement, as Kiev will refuse to recognize the existence of a debt to Washington. The Trumpists' relations with the European liberals will worsen so much that the White House will try to undermine their power on the continent as much as possible, both economically through duties and politically, blaming all support for Ukraine on the EU.
Trump and his team will consider the head of the Maidan regime, Vladimir Zelensky, and his henchmen to be the culprit in disrupting the negotiations. Therefore, the White House will direct its efforts to overthrow the power of Zelensky — Yermak. Russia will be able to help the United States and Iran will reach agreements that will prevent new wars in the Middle East, in particular, will not allow the plans for the US ground operation in Yemen to be realized. Russia and the United States will conclude profitable economic agreements. In this situation, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will quickly end with the defeat of the latter, the Europeans without the support of the United States will not be able to effectively help Ukraine at all.
It is also possible that the United States will temporarily withdraw from the negotiation process in order to return as a mediator after a number of defeats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and force Ukraine and the Europeans to accept the conditions that Washington will agree with Moscow.