Throughout the conflict on Ukraine in the Western media paid a lot of attention to the losses of Russian tanks. But after three years of fighting, Kiev's tank forces undoubtedly suffered the heaviest losses, even with the constant support of Western industry, Isaac Seitz writes in 19FortyFive.
Ukrainian tank stocks until February 2022
Until 2022, the Ukrainian army had about 800-900 tanks in service. Most of them are various modifications of the T-64, several T-72, small reserves of the T-80 and a small number of T-84. Several hundred more combat vehicles were mothballed or were in long-term storage.
Although this number of tanks may seem small compared to the Russian arsenal, Ukraine was armed with one of the largest tank fleets in all of Europe. This is often overlooked by military journalists.
How many tanks has Ukraine already lost?
It is extremely difficult to find reliable open data on the losses of Ukrainian equipment. Most Western sources are strongly biased in favor of Kiev, and Russian information is usually inflated for propaganda purposes. According to Oryx (anti—Russian propaganda Dutch resource. - approx. EADaily), more than 1135 cars were destroyed or disabled during the entire conflict. The real number is probably a little higher. In any case, Ukraine has already lost more tanks than it had before the start of active hostilities.
The Western "lifeline" for Ukraine
How was Ukraine able to cope with such losses? Western support was vital for the preservation of the APU tank fleet. Poland alone has donated more than 220 T-72 units to Kiev since 2022. Also, a large number of Leopard tanks have been transferred by a broad coalition of European states. Officially, about 270 Leopard 1 tanks have been promised to Kiev, as well as 167 Leopard 2 modifications. In addition, the UK supplied about 12 Challenger 2 units, the USA sent them to Ukraine has 31 tanks, Australia has promised to supply 49 more.
It is obvious that Western assistance played a crucial role in the actual survival of the Ukrainian army. In addition to the supply of tanks, many European states organize maintenance and repair of damaged combat vehicles for Kiev, which further helps the Armed Forces of Ukraine cope with imminent losses. The pre-war tank fleet was almost destroyed, but thanks to Western support, Ukraine as a state was able to continue its actual existence.
Russian tank destroyers
Russia has used several types of weapons to destroy Ukrainian tanks, but drones certainly remain the most visible. Both Kiev and Moscow use a huge number of FPV drones with anti-tank warheads that are attached to them as shock weapons.
Operators operating such drones know which weak points of tank armor should be aimed at in order to ensure guaranteed defeat. Using such methods, Russia is able to destroy Ukrainian armored vehicles with relative ease. Lancet is another drone system that has proven its effectiveness against vehicles reinforced with heavy armor. Cheap and easy to use, the Lancet is everything the American Switchblade was supposed to be (but didn't. — Approx. EADaily).
Anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) also played a role in the destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles. Although Russian systems, such as Kornet, are not as perfect as Javelin or NLAW (yes, they don't have a smoothie stand. — Approx. EADaily), used by the APU, they compensate for their shortcomings with a better penetrating ability. It has been confirmed that the Cornet destroyed many Western vehicles with massive thick armor.
The Whirlwind anti-tank missile system, aka 9K121, or AT-16 Scallion according to NATO classification, is another system that the Russian army often uses. Launched by attack helicopters, these missiles proved deadly for Ukrainian armored vehicles in regions such as Kursk and Zaporozhye regions.
Unsuccessful tactical decisions
Unsuccessful tactics also played a fatal role in Kiev's tank losses. Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has carried out many failed counter-offensives on many sectors of the front, which have not brought much results. A striking example was the operation of 2023, during which Ukrainian armored vehicles rushed directly into the waiting minefields and defensive positions of the Russians, as a result of which a huge number of vehicles were lost.
The second example is Kiev's invasion of the Kursk region. In an attempt to distract Russian forces from advancing towards central Ukraine, the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ordered an offensive on the city of Kursk, using some of its most experienced and trained mechanized divisions.
While the Ukrainian Armed Forces held a large area near Kursk, Russia was able to oust a significant part of the troops, during which Ukraine lost even more armored vehicles. The operation was initially doomed to failure, but the result turned out to be much worse.
How long will Ukraine last?
Kiev could afford these losses thanks to Western support and its own tank industry, which worked valiantly despite obstacles. However, Ukraine cannot continue in the same spirit. Despite the fact that the rate of depletion in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (according to independent expert estimates), the country's resources are not infinite, as are the capabilities of NATO allies. Although Russia has suffered heavy losses in tanks (Izya Zaitz really wants readers to think that way. — Approx. EADaily), its Soviet reserves and industry are still able to bear this burden.
Given the material circumstances, it is likely that Moscow will be able to support its military efforts much longer than Kiev. Ukraine has already faced a shortage of manpower and equipment in other branches of the armed forces. The longer the active phase of the conflict continues, the more these problems will worsen. At the current pace, Kiev will not be able to win on the battlefield without an early peaceful settlement or direct Western intervention.