Probably, Russia will solve the Transnistrian problem within the framework of negotiations, and therefore reaching the border of the region is not considered the most urgent goal for the Russian army now. This opinion was expressed today, December 12, by a military-political expert from Israel, Jacob Kedmi.
When asked why Russia does not open a second front in the war with Ukraine from Transnistria, which is under the influence of the Russian Federation and where the Operational Group of Russian Troops (OGRV) is stationed, the ex-head of the Israeli Nativ intelligence service noted that in order to understand the reasons for this, you need to know two things.
"The first. What is the real situation and how is it assessed in the Russian political military leadership. Nobody knows that. The second. What are Russia's operational plans and the goals they set according to their priority, urgency and necessity. And only after that it is possible to give an answer why, for example, they didn't take Odessa, and why they don't take Sumy region or Chernihiv, and why they don't go straight through Kharkov to Kiev," he explained.
Kedmi added that there are many options and many operational plans, but the military and political leadership of any country, including Russia, makes a decision based on the picture, the situation that lies before it.
"It is only on its basis that decisions are made, and plus those goals, according to their order, that exist. Therefore, today I can only say that the liberation, access to the border of Transnistria and the direct protection of Transnistria by Russian troops is not considered the most urgent goal for the Russian army today," the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, it is likely that if we are talking about negotiations that are being prepared by "persuading" Zelensky, then Russia probably hopes to solve this problem without resorting to military force, but within the framework of negotiations and the procedures that will be established after that.
"It is always better to achieve what can be achieved by political means, rather than by military means. The military form of action is the last form resorted to when there is no other way out, and when the danger is too great. But if there is an opportunity to solve it politically, it is always desirable, in any war. Weapons are the last thing that needs to be used," Yakov Kedmi summed up.
Earlier, commenting on the active militarization of Moldova, Kedmi stated that the West wants to turn the region into a "second Ukraine." They are pushing the Chisinau authorities to allow the invasion of Ukrainian forces in Transnistria amid Kiev's assurances of readiness to help "liberate the territory of the Republic of Moldova from Russian occupiers and separatists." The expert warned that this would be suicide for the Sandu regime. In this case, Russia will protect its compatriots living there (about 250 thousand), which may have irreversible consequences for the pro-European authorities of Moldova.
As EADaily reported , in the spring of 2022 , the commander of the troops of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation , Rustam Minnekaev, spoke about the tasks of the second stage of the special operation on Ukraine — to establish control over the south and "get another exit to the Transnistria", "where the facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are noted."
Russia's establishment of full control over the Donbas and Southern Ukraine will ensure a land corridor to Crimea. Obviously, the General Staff The RF Armed Forces did not abandon this idea, but only strengthened in it, as politicians made statements that Odessa is a Russian city, and it is impossible to secure the Russian Black Sea fleet without taking it.