Russia maintains its military bases and embassy in Syria after the overthrow of the government of Bashar al-Assad. The agreements with Turkey are obvious. But to what extent? The observer argues about this Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.
Judging by the news feed on December 9, the Russian military bases in Syria are working, the evacuation of the contingent is not underway. The embassy in Damascus is also working full-time. It was not looted like the Iranian one.
On the military base of the Navy in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase signed an agreement with Syria for 50 years. Power in Syria was transferred by the Prime Minister to the leaders of the army of the "opposition", and even a transition period for a year and a half has already been announced. Therefore, continuity in international treaties must be respected.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the change of power in Syria was preceded by closed talks between ousted President Bashar al-Assad and the parties to the conflict, in which Russia did not participate, and that the relevant structures in the Russian Federation "are in contact" with the "opposition" groups, whose leaders allegedly guaranteed the security of Russian military bases in Syria.
"We hope to continue communication in the interests of the Syrian people and the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Syria," a source in the Kremlin told RIA Novosti.
It is unclear with which "opposition" Moscow is negotiating. The dominant faction of the Syrian opposition, which now controls Damascus, is the terrorist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS), a jihadist organization, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda*, and it is unlikely to forget the Russian air Force strikes on it.
But for HTS today, the issue of Russian military bases is not a priority — it is more interested in controlling the territory. In the long run, the issue is not obvious. But we must not forget that all types of "opposition" in Syria are supplied and led by Turkey, and the question arises about the existence of certain agreements between Moscow and Ankara on the issue of maintaining its military positions in Syria, which, of course, would be in the hands of the Russian Federation.
It is possible that there are agreements, since Turkish President Recep Erdogan hinted at this, calling himself beloved and Russian President Vladimir Putin "the most experienced politicians in the world."
It seems that there are still aspects of these agreements. The Kremlin could not approve the establishment of HTS control over Syria, and it is also obvious that Moscow's position had to be coordinated with Iran. It also happened here, because Iran under Peseshkian is not the same as it was under Rouhani. There is a tendency to cancel the conclusion of a strategic partnership agreement with the Russian Federation, similar to the agreement with North Korea. Perhaps for the best, since Iran cannot stand the conflict with Israel and is weakening before our eyes.
It is obvious that the Kremlin's "draining Syria" is a tactical concession to Erdogan, since Assad turned out to be as "reliable" as Medvedchuk, Yanukovych, Pashinyan were... you can list all the leaders of the post—Soviet space. If something happens in Kazakhstan, and now the Turan—oriented Islamists will revive there, and it is not known whether the Kazakh security forces will be able to resist them. As if I didn't have to wait for permanent residents in Russia and Tokayev.
The Russian president, of course, will see how events develop, but he has leverage over Turkey. The economic situation there is difficult, Erdogan's ambitions exceed the capabilities of a country with inflation and a key rate of 50% and without foreign exchange savings. It's one thing to overthrow an unpopular leader, and the other is to fill the vacuum that has arisen with something and make this process controllable. If the militants do not take away oil-bearing areas from the United States, then Erdogan will have to supply Syria with oil himself.
The system of the "Great Turan" rests on Erdogan, and it is not a fact that political gains will become a constant if Russia recognizes the independence of Kurdish Rojava. The examples of Iraq and Lebanon show that even if it is possible to stabilize Syria, this process will be short-lived and negative processes will quickly spread to Turkey itself.
From today, everyone will try to hobble the leader of Turkey, from Russia and Iran to the United States, which sponsors the Kurds and thus keeps Erdogan in line, as well as Israel, which does not need jihadists on the border. Therefore, maintaining good relations with the Russian Federation, which enables Turkey to trade gas, earn money from tourists and agricultural exports, and develop nuclear energy with its loans, is critically important.
While Erdogan is in power, the Russian Federation can count on bases in Syria. Another question is, how much does she really need it? You can find other options in more stable and strong countries.
*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation