After the victory of the "opposition" in Syria, oil wars may begin. The country has never been a serious player in the world market, but provided itself with raw materials. Now the pro-American Kurds and militants in the northeast and east of the country control the main deposits, while the rest of the territories largely depend on imports.
It was provided by Iran, which, obviously, with the departure of Bashar al-Assad, will stop doing this. In this situation, the victorious "opposition" will have to fight for oil in order to earn for themselves and at least provide part of the country's needs. And Turkey, which supports militants, is interested in relieving itself of the burden of maintaining the "opposition," experts say.
On December 8, the Syrian "opposition" announced the seizure of power and the formation of transitional governing bodies. It took her 10 days to do what the militants could not do in all the previous 13 years. However, the wars in Syria are unlikely to end there. One of the likely ones is the war for oil.
Back in the summer, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke about the need for cooperation with Damascus to "liberate" the largest oil fields controlled by the Kurds. For the new authorities, this issue may be even more relevant.
Syria has never been a serious player in the world market. But the fields are controlled by pro-American forces, and the new authorities need to provide themselves and the controlled territories with fuel, which was previously provided to the government of Bashar al-Assad by Iran.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, notes that the history of the war in Syria is not about oil and gas and the redistribution of their delivery and control routes.
"Hydrocarbons are relevant, but the main reasons lie in political, religious and other areas. Syria is not a major player in the global market. BP estimated all the country's reserves at 300 million tons. For comparison, Russia produces more than 500 million tons per year," the expert says.
He cites data from the Energy Institute, which now publishes BP energy reviews, that the peak of oil production in Syria occurred in 2002.
"Then they produced about 32 million tons. After that, production declined. Obviously, the natural depletion of deposits has begun. Plus the underinvestment of the industry. Syria was not attractive for investments even in the last years of Assad the elder and the first years of Assad the younger. And in order to at least keep production, it was necessary to invest money and apply new technologies that Damascus did not have. During the Civil War, production fell sharply. The Energy Institute estimates production in 2022 and 2023 at 1.8−2 million tons," Igor Yushkov continues.
It is impossible to say how much was actually mined and exported, the leading analyst of the FNEB notes. But it was always a little.
"And as a state, Syria has not been making money on oil for a long time. But before, at least, she provided for herself," notes Igor Yushkov.
By 2020, Syria's main oil fields were under the control of US-backed Kurds and militants. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that in recent years the territories controlled by the government of Bashar al-Assad have been provided with their own energy resources by only 38.7%. The rest was imports. Oil was brought from Iran. According to Al Majalla, the government of Bashar al-Assad actively received oil from the Kurds, buying volumes on the black market through intermediaries.
"These intermediaries, such as businessman Hossam Katerji, buy oil from the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces and deliver it to government-controlled areas, which also took place when the Islamic State controlled the wells," writes Al Majalla.
"The main fields of Syria are located in the northeast and east of the country on the border with Iraq. The northern fields are controlled by the Kurds, the eastern ones by pro—American militant groups. It is an important source of income for them. This option allows the United States to save on them. Therefore, it will be difficult for the pro—Turkish forces to squeeze them out of there," Igor Yushkov continues.
In recent years, Turkish-controlled groups have been on poor lands and have not controlled oil fields. Therefore, now that the government in Syria has changed, a war for oil may begin, a leading analyst of the FNEB believes.
The seizure of deposits is also necessary for Turkey. On the one hand, the Syrian Kurds in Ankara are considered terrorists and want to destroy their source of existence. On the other hand, the Turkish authorities are interested in controlling the groupings of deposits so that the new authorities can at least provide themselves with fuel and remove this burden from Ankara. Therefore, among the latest news is the fighting of the "opposition" with the Kurds. According to Daily Sabah, the "Syrian National Army" captured Manbij from the Kurds, which is located in the north of the country — east of Aleppo.
Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko cites data from the US Department of Energy that oil consumption in Syria in 2022 amounted to 48.9 million barrels.
"Thus, according to the data for 2022, the market was scarce (more than three times the difference with all production in the country). Accordingly, of course, if the militants have oil fields, as well as if there is an opportunity to increase production, this could help the domestic market of Syria," says Nikolai Duchdenko.
In any case, the current deposits will not be able to meet the demand in the country itself, Igor Yushkov believes. In his opinion, it can be expected that the new authorities will have to buy oil and petroleum products on the world market.
Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at Vector X Investment company, believes that having gained control over the fields, the new authorities can start exporting oil, but this will also not provide significant export revenues for the country. Not to mention the fact that Syria is under sanctions and, as Al Majalla estimated, the Kurds are forced to sell oil at $ 15 per barrel at a world price of about $ 71-$72. In such a situation, the value of all volumes produced annually in Syria does not exceed $ 220 million.
Most likely, says Maxim Khudalov, Turkey will have to continue supplying its proteges, while the Americans will continue to pump oil and support the Kurds without harming themselves.
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