Recent weeks have been marked by unusual aggressive activity. Georgia, Romania, South Korea suddenly jumped out like devils from a snuffbox. But the most impressive were, of course, the events in Syria. And this is understandable — the interests of many countries have converged on a small area.
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Israel, the USA, Saudi Arabia — this is a list of only those countries that directly lose or find something from this conflict. If we describe everything that happened briefly, then the most correct phrase would be: a terrorist organization overthrew a legitimately elected government and seized Syria. Everything else is nuanced. And this is not an exceptional phenomenon. Libya, Afghanistan — all this has already happened and was quite recently. What happened in Syria did not say anything new.
On the one hand, the West is gloating — this is the loss of Iran and Russia. And it's true. But if this is really a fiasco for Iran, then for Russia... it has other priorities now. By the way, this is one of the reasons why Russia did not rush to help the regime of Bashar al-Assad. It's enough that she took him in.
It's much worse with Iran. The "Axis of Resistance" or "Shiite axis" that he has been creating for so long is collapsing. This coalition united Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis and a bunch of other smaller groups. The representative of Iran somehow formulated the goals and meaning of this axis:
"What is happening in Syria is not an internal problem, but a conflict between the axis of resistance and its enemies in the region and around the world. Iran will not tolerate in any form the destruction of the axis of resistance, of which Syria is an integral part."
Not only did Israel deliver a sensitive blow to Hezbollah, which weakened the axis, the defeat of the Syrian government almost completely destroyed it. By the way, Israel can also be attributed to those who lose in this situation. It's one thing to have a completely sane Assad on the border, even if he is an opponent of the Jewish state, it's quite another when gangs of frostbitten Islamists are located on the border. This explains the exit of Israeli tanks into the neutral zone on the border of Syria and Israel. Why gangs? Yes, because the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization, which is fighting in Syria, includes 24 jihadist paramilitary groups. It is not superfluous to note that this organization is considered a terrorist organization both in the United States and in Russia, not to mention other countries.
But if someone loses, then someone wins. The main beneficiaries of the terrorists' victory are Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It is they, the states in which Sunnism is the religion of the majority, who have made and are making a lot of efforts to destroy the Shiite axis. Moreover, if Saudi Arabia is doing this mainly on the diplomatic front, then Turkey is helping to fight with both weapons and manpower. Therefore, it is not surprising that in Turkey and Saudi Arabia, flags were changed on the buildings of the Syrian embassies literally in an instant. And this is despite the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdogan positions himself as almost a friend of Russia. But not everyone, probably, paid attention to the fact that Vladimir Putin's announced trip to Turkey was postponed.
What awaits this region? Forecasts are a thankless task, but I don't predict, I just reason. The main thing is what will happen in Syria itself. But look at Libya. There was exactly the same situation when Muammar Kadaffi's government was overthrown almost instantly and fundamentalist terrorists took over the country. 13 years ago, Kadaffi was killed. Did it bring peace to Libya? No, it's not. Several governments working at the same time, even more armed formations, constant military operations, the country has deteriorated sharply, in fact, there is no single Libya — it has simply been torn to shreds, and there is no way out of all this.
The same thing will happen in Syria. It will cease to be a single country. De facto, it has not been a single country since the beginning of hostilities in 2011. It will take quite a bit of time, literally weeks, and in Syria will break out a bloody feud. Now two and a half dozen terrorist organizations have united against a single enemy — Assad. But everyone has their own plans, their own ambitions, their own goals. And since they can't do anything else but fight, Syria will degrade even more.
The United States imposed more than 2.5 thousand sanctions on the country. It is clear that even with the departure of Assad, no one will lift the sanctions. But if Russia helped rebuild destroyed enterprises under Assad, then who will rebuild Syria now? These bandits with machine guns? I don't believe it! Turkey could help destroy Syria, but it will definitely not help to restore it.
Erdogan needs the Syrian armed forces only for the war with the Kurds, for their destruction. And in general, people who are used to getting what they need with the help of weapons will not go to work. And they won't surrender their weapons. The number of Syrian refugees will increase significantly.
But there is also such a nuance. The head of this entire conglomerate of bandit groups, Muhammad al-Julani, comes from the Golan Heights, as evidenced by his pseudonym "Julani". And the fact that at a certain stage he will start a war with Israel for the Golan is an indisputable fact.
Most likely, the world will receive several territories controlled by various organizations of armed fundamentalists in place of Syria, which, alas, will not lead to peace. Most likely, they will not touch the Russian military bases, at least for the first time. But the fact that Assad took refuge in Russia, will entail demands for his extradition, which may lead to the closure of these bases, or even to a direct attack on them. As for the United States, Donald Trump seems to have decided to distance himself from this problem, because he has huge plans, and Syria is not included in them.
However, we'll wait and see.
*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation