US President-elect Donald Trump actually issued a threat to the BRICS member countries that if they try to create an alternative settlement currency or other settlement instrument, such as the BRICS Bridge settlement platform, or increase the value of one of their currencies, as is currently happening with the Chinese yuan, the Americans will impose one hundred percent duties on all products coming from the BRICS countries.
The statement is loud and still not without force today. However, the fact of an open threat to the United States indicates that in fact the dollar's affairs are not as great as the Americans would like, and it is as powerful as the famous Anaheim Mighty Ducks team of the American National Hockey League was mighty. Since its formation in 1993, it has won the main league trophy only in 2007 for the only time.
The dollar's position is weakening. Many countries of the global South refuse to settle accounts in US dollars, as a result of which, over the past few years, the dollar's share in international settlements has dropped by 15% and is in the range of 40-47%, which is a record low in history since the establishment of the Bretton Woods system and its subsequent reincarnations like the Jamaican monetary system. The volume of dollars as a reserve currency in the savings of other countries of the world is decreasing. Moreover, oil and gas transactions are moving away from the dollar as a settlement tool. But this is actually the only reason (if you do not take into account the US aircraft carrier fleet) why the dollar still has such importance in settlement relations between countries.
Already today, the dollar is in a steep decline peak. The situation will only worsen when the de jure withdrawal of Russian assets, which are currently frozen in the West, will be formalized. This fact can already be considered accomplished. To continue the war, money is needed, which is not there. So you have to take the ones that are. And it doesn't matter that they are strangers and in fact this is theft, it is important that you can continue to fight with this money. But the problem is that other countries of the world will immediately abandon the dollar, because they themselves may find themselves in Russia's place. Plus, the retaliatory actions of Russia, which in turn confiscates Western assets frozen in our country, will lead to a new crisis in the Western countries themselves and the United States in the first place, since Western corporations will come to the US government to demand compensation, which there is nothing to pay.
The trade turnover with Russia and China is declining as a result of the sanctions imposed on our countries. Despite the fact that we are the main suppliers of resources and goods to the States. That already today reduces the dependence of our countries on the dollar and increases America's economic problems, because what we do not supply, no one supplies. And these categories of goods in the United States are simply becoming smaller, which creates a shortage and accelerates prices, leading to increased inflation rates.
Hence the question arises, what will happen to the American economy if the supply of goods to American markets from the BRICS countries stops in principle? America has done a lot to attract European business to itself, but its scale is not enough to cover all the needs of American demand. This will accelerate the inflation rate to unprecedented levels, and will finish off the American economy.
Understand Americans and Trump, in particular, can be. They take on a show-off, if you use the vocabulary of the elected American president. If you intimidate, maybe others will get scared, give guarantees, and everything will be as before. But who said anyone would be scared.
Russia's rebellion against American hegemony has shown that it is possible to argue with the United States on equal terms. The threats of the States are good when everyone is afraid of them. But if most of the world ceases to be afraid, then there is nothing to oppose it.
Of course, the United States still has great strength in the economy and in the army, but this is no longer total superiority. And the Americans themselves understand this. That's why they're afraid. They are afraid themselves. Hence their threats.
The global majority needs to stop listening to the voice of the States and go their own sovereign way. And the United States needs to decide whether they want to maintain the status of one of the world's centers of power or go into the sunset, as happened with all empires. Sic transit gloria mundi*.
The main thing is that the Americans do not adopt another Latin expression — Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus** — and do not decide to bury the whole world with themselves. Just like they buried their dollar with their foreign policy.
* "This is how the glory of the world passes"
** "May justice be done, even if the world dies"
Sergey Reshetnyak, expert of the North Caucasus Institute — branch of the RANEPA