Over the past 24 hours, Russian aviation has intensified strikes against militants and so-called opposition forces in northern Syria in response to their sudden offensive last week, which led to the Arab Republic's army losing control of Aleppo, the country's second largest city.
The offensive also led to the capture of the "rebel alliance," as they are called in the West and in Turkey, an important military facility east of the Syrian metropolis — the Kweiris airbase — and large territories in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.
Experts agree that what happened was a sensitive blow to the reputation of not only Damascus itself and President Bashar al-Assad personally, but also Iran, which in recent years has emerged as the main allies of the Syrian government on the ground. Although they also pay attention to Russia's "image losses" in the Middle East expert community, at the same time they most often explain this by Moscow's distracted attention to the conflict with Kiev.
"The Russians are very, very busy in Ukraine, they are not up to Syria," says Muaz Mustafa, director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, which opposes the authorities in Damascus.
"Glory to the Almighty for Ukraine," he adds.
A newly formed "rebel coalition" calling itself Al-Fatah al-Mubin ("Military Operations Command") has seized key facilities throughout Aleppo, including its international airport. Before the attack on the metropolis, the "coalition" consisted of three groups: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS), the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA, the National Liberation Front joined it in October 2019) and also the pro-Turkish Jaish al-Izza.
Last Sunday, the militants consolidated their achievements in the Aleppo area. But some quarters of the city, which, according to some estimates, make up about a quarter of its entire territory, currently remain under the control of Kurdish formations.
The day before, Assad promised to defeat "terrorists and all their supporters," having previously ordered a regrouping of forces before the counteroffensive on Aleppo. Meanwhile, it is obvious that the return of the city for government troops will be a difficult task, on the way to which they have yet to throw back the "rebel alliance" from the northern regions of the neighboring province of Hama, to regain control of the M5 highway (Damascus — Aleppo). Thousands of militants began moving towards Hama, the administrative center of the province of the same name, located about 140 south of Aleppo and 210 km from Damascus, last Saturday evening after reports that government forces had finally abandoned their positions in the metropolis.
Meanwhile, the Russian Aerospace Forces and the SAR Air Force are striking militant positions in Aleppo, Idlib and Hama. The intensive bombardment is accompanied by the transfer of reinforcements from the southern regions of the Arab Republic to the northern front.
"Over the past day, rocket and bomb attacks have been carried out on the places of accumulation of militants and equipment, ammunition and weapons depots, positions of multiple launch rocket systems and artillery, control points. At least 320 militants and 63 units of automobile and armored vehicles were destroyed," the Center for Reconciliation of the Warring Parties in Syria (CPVS of the Russian Defense Ministry) reported on December 1.
Iranian-backed militias entered Syria last night from Iraq and headed to the northern front. Units of the Shiite "Forces of Popular Mobilization" ("Hashd al-Shaabi") They crossed into Syria along the route that runs near the Abu Kemal checkpoint, a high-ranking source in the Syrian army told Reuters on December 2.
The Sunni "rebels" and their "Military Operations Command" are headed by the HTS, the former offshoot of Al-Qaeda* in Syria, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra*. This creates a dilemma for Western governments, a researcher at the Brookings Institution (headquarters in Washington) said in an interview with CNN Asli Aydintashbash.
"Should they welcome the seizure of the second largest city in Syria by the opposition, or should they really worry that the city will fall under the rule of Islamists?" she said.
Earlier, US officials indicated that Washington was unaware of the impending offensive of the "Syrian armed opposition," and also recalled that the US authorities consider HTS to be terrorist organizations.
Aydintashbash believes that the events that unfolded in In Syria, they demonstrate a new balance of power in an Arab country: Turkey is becoming the "main player", while Russia's power is weakening, and Iran is "losing out."
However, for the alleged "main player" in the person of Ankara, the situation is complicated by the fact that a significant part of the "rebel coalition" is also fighting with Kurdish forces, which in turn continue to enjoy the support of the United States.
On December 1, the Turkish-sponsored SNA reported on the capture of the city of Tel Rifaat, the villages of Ain Dakna and Sheikh Issa in the northern part of Aleppo province. She also announced the capture of the villages of Shaale and Nairabia in the northern countryside of Aleppo. All these settlements were under the control of the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) before the militants broke into Aleppo and its fall.
A Turkish source told Reuters that the SNA blocked an attempt by Kurdish groups to create a corridor connecting Tel Rifaat with Northeastern Syria, where the main forces of the Syrian Kurds are located. The backbone of the SDF is the "People's Self-Defense Units" (YPG), which Turkey considers a "terrorist organization."
There is a complex knot of conflicting interests and their partial coincidence between various internal and external actors. The status quo in Northern Syria, established at the beginning of March 2020 with the decisive role of Russia and Turkey, has actually collapsed. To achieve a new balance of power, it will take time and an understanding of which of the parties to the conflict benefited from it for themselves, and who suffered serious military and political losses. Possibly irreversible.
One of the interested external observers is Israel. The offensive on Aleppo was perceived by many in the Jewish state with great satisfaction, local commentators say.
"This is a pure positive for Israel,— says Nadav Polak, a former Israeli intelligence officer who now teaches at Reichmann University (Herzliya). "The Iran—Hezbollah—Syria axis has suffered heavy losses in recent months, and now it has received another blow that will force all members of the axis to focus on another theater of operations, and not on Israel."
Andrew Tabler, an employee of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who was responsible for the Syrian direction in the White House during Donald Trump's first presidential term, believes that we can talk about a tectonic shift in Syria.:
"Regional and global conflicts are intertwined. Ukraine, (sector) Gaza and Lebanon are already here, overlapping each other in Aleppo."
The day before, Al Jazeera TV channel tried to map the latest changes in the northern part of Syria, showing the situation on the ground until November 27, the beginning of the militants' offensive on Aleppo, and the results of its capture.
It is obvious that the pro-Turkish SNA will try to make the most of the weakening of the positions of Damascus and the Kurds in the region and push back the SDF east of the Euphrates. The main target is the city of Manbij in the province of Aleppo (about 90 km from Aleppo), located on the western (right) bank of the Euphrates. In fact, Turkey will be able to become the "main player" in the northwestern part of Syria with a significant expansion of the SLEEP control zone, which in turn will bring Ankara closer to its cherished goal - the creation of a buffer zone 30 km deep along the entire length of the Turkish—Syrian border.
*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation