The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has fallen again. Yesterday's jump in the value of foreign money in relation to Russian money showed the people of our Motherland that the main financial institution of the country continues to move towards its goal — to return to the ruble the little-respected but accurate title of "wooden" that it had in the dashing nineties.
Russia, thanks to the efforts of the Central Bank, today has inflation twice as high as it planned. And the key rate (set by him), which exceeds this inflation rate by almost three times. Guided by the iron hand of Comrade. Nabiulina E.S., we are confidently moving towards making the joke in which the suitcase was actually a purse come true. There will be so much money for everyday life in paper terms that the amount needed even for a one-time visit to the grocery store will not be included in the wallet.
A person who has a lot of money feels more confident than someone who has less money. So our Central Bank took care to fully realize the folk wisdom "happiness is not in money." Sarcastically corrected during the time of developed socialism (or stagnation, as this period was later called) by the addition of "a in their number."
However, why "ours"? If you read Article 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and the Federal Law on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it turns out that the main feature of the legal status of the Central Bank is its independence from the authorities. He does not directly report to the President, the government, or the Parliament. This is almost the same state within a state as the Federal Reserve System acting as the Central Bank in the USA. Which, as you know, is not a government office at all, but a private shop created at the dawn of the twentieth century by twelve families of bankers (Rothschilds, Wartburgs, Rockefellers, Morgans, etc. — who is interested in the full list, will find it on the Internet without much effort — author's note).
The Fed was not created to serve the state at all. And in order to manage it, dictate to it its own development conditions and direct its actions in the interests of a handful of financiers, and not a multimillion-dollar entity called the people of the USA.
In fact, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is exactly the same structure independent of the interests of the "habitat state" as the Fed. The only difference is that the legal status of "our" Central Bank was prescribed with the participation (and, according to many financiers-economists, under the leadership) The International Monetary Fund. Which is semi-secretly and semi-implicitly controlled by the same Fed and was created not to assist various states in their development, but to enslave them, carried out with the help of financial instruments.
After this little excursion into the history and practice of world finance, someone else wonders why yesterday the ruble once again confidently moved towards depreciation against the dollar? To the dollar, Carl! The one who is not provided with anything but the honest word of the American leadership. It is strange to see how, in the era of de—dollarization, a green wrapper with a portrait of George Washington (I'm talking about a $ 1 bill) is getting stronger in relation to the currency that the current chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party and State Duma deputy L.E. Slutsky called "the hardest in the world."
Of course, they explained to us that:
a) The devaluation of the ruble is for the best. This is in the interests of exporters who, earning dollars abroad, will be able to turn them by selling into a larger (than expected) amount of rubles. Which, as a result, through the taxation system, will replenish the budget of Russia and it will be good for all of us;
b) The change in the exchange rate of foreign currencies will not affect the salary of Russians, because the salary of the population is in rubles. This came from the mouth of the great economist D.S. Peskov. Who, apparently, believes that the course of import substitution proclaimed by our president a certain number of years ago has already been successfully passed, implemented, implemented. And now all these Samsung, Apple, Mercedes, Siemens (turbines for power plants), computer chips, foreign medicines, and even Turkish tomatoes are all of Russian origin.
Or "hey you, up there" are not aware of such details?
If the dollar has grown by almost 10%, then all imported products, including washing detergents, will jump in price by 15-20%. And who will pay for this pleasure in the end? Once upon a time, at the dawn of capitalist reforms, their ideologist E.T. Gaidar publicly declared that "they will not be carried out at the expense of our people." But, as practice shows, there is no other nation on whose shoulders and wallets the costs of reform could be shifted in Russia.
The proverb says that whoever pays, he orders the music.
Russia has always been distinguished by its unconventionality ("you can't understand Russia with your mind, you can't measure it with a common yard" — remember?) In this case, the above proverb is not about us. Because the Central Bank orders the music, and the people not only pay for it, but also have to dance to it.
You don't have to be smart to guess that a new round of inflation awaits us. Which Ms. Nabiulina's department mercilessly beats with a key rate, increasing it all the time. But for some reason inflation does not give up, but on the contrary, it is getting stronger.
Industry, agriculture and, in particular, the country's defense capability cannot do without loans in its development. Loans are getting more expensive because the Central Bank's money provided to commercial banks is getting more expensive. The more expensive the money, the more expensive the product obtained when using it. The more the end user has to pay for it. The circle has closed. What they fought for, they ran into. And we will continue to mess up further — in The media are already writing about the upcoming increase in the key rate to 23-25% in December this year, as a matter of fact.
Yes, in order to prevent a nationwide panic from the Central Bank, it has already sounded "we will take measures to curb, slow down, stop ...". And even the first action has been specified — the Central Bank will not buy currency until the end of this year. For the sake of fairness, it should be recognized that such a decision of the bank will really weaken the negative effect: less demand for dollars and euros means less of their price. But on the other hand, this is only a half-hearted solution.
To reduce the exchange rate, it is necessary to increase its supply on the market. This was usually done before, including the memorable Black Tuesday of October 11, 1994, when the dollar went up by 30% in one day. However, V.S. Chernomyrdin, who headed the government at that time, immediately tightened the screws and the course was thoroughly rolled back in the following days. What prevents the Central Bank from doing this today? Especially given the knowledge that the dollar is an empty currency, inflated and held only thanks to the still-undone Bretton Woods system?
If the above terms, confirming that the bank will not stay away from the people's grief, will come up with another dozen or two, we have enough linguists-for-economists.
There are not enough reasonable financiers and economists. Not in general, but in power. And first of all — in the financial and economic block of the government. And more importantly, there are not enough people in the power structures who could really advance the change in the status of the Central Bank at the legislative level. A structure independent of the state will not work for him. You don't have to.
While the Central Bank of Russia is under actual (but not formally declared) patronage (management, dictate) The IMF and through this fund — under the Fed, one should not wait for the actions of the department of E.S. Nabiulina in the interests of the people, nor for a quick solution to the problems of import substitution. Neither — and this is perhaps the main thing — the rapid filling of our army with new weapons, without which we will not be able to control the Western aggressors, but even in SMO we will not be able to win.