According to the schedule outlined by US President Joe Biden, the ceasefire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement ("Party of Allah") came into force this Wednesday morning (at 04.00 local time, 05.00 Moscow time) after the parties to the armed conflict agreed on a truce.
Speaking on the evening of November 26 in In the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said that the deal "is intended to be a permanent cessation of hostilities." He also reported on his conversations with the leaders of Israel and Lebanon and that both countries accepted the US proposal to "put an end to the destructive conflict."
The Cabinet of Ministers of Israel in a narrow composition (the security cabinet) on the eve voted to approve the deal by a majority of 10 votes to one, the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, thanking the United States for its active participation in reaching an agreement.
The 60-day ceasefire is aimed at implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in the hope that it can become the basis for a lasting truce. The World Organization's Security Council resolution 1701 was adopted to end the 34-day war between Israel and Lebanon in 2006 and has maintained relative calm on their border for almost two decades. This lasted until October 7, 2023, when a war broke out between Israel and Palestinian Hamas, which is still ongoing. Hezbollah has since launched rocket and artillery strikes against Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians, marking the beginning of more than a year of border clashes.
In the autumn of this year, the conflict took on a large—scale and intense character following the "pinpoint" strikes of the Israelis in Beirut, as a result of which Hezbollah was actually beheaded - on September 27, the secretary General of the "Party of Allah" Hassan Nasrallah was killed. On the night of October 1, the IDF invaded the territory of Lebanon, launching a ground operation against the main enemy of the Jewish state on its northern border.
Resolution 1701 stated that Israel should withdraw all its troops from southern Lebanon, and the only armed formations present south of the Litani River (flowing about 30 km north of the Lebanese-Israeli border) will be the military of the Arab Republic and the UN peacekeeping force (UNIFIL). Although Israeli troops will not withdraw immediately after the agreement comes into force, they must do so within 60 days in accordance with the terms of the deal. During this time, Hezbollah fighters are also expected to retreat about 40 kilometers from the border of Israel and Lebanon. During the 60-day transition period, the IDF will withdraw from Southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese army will deploy about 5,000 troops south of Litani, including at 33 posts along the border with Israel. Hezbollah forces will leave southern Lebanon, the military infrastructure of the country's leading Shiite organization in the area will be dismantled. The US has also reportedly provided an additional letter outlining Israel's rights to respond to ceasefire violations, if any.
"After studying the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a correspondence between what we said and what the Lebanese officials agreed on," Mahmoud Kamati, deputy chairman of the Hezbollah political council, told Al Jazeera.
"We want to put an end to (Israeli) aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the state (Lebanon). Any violation of sovereignty is rejected," he added.
Nevertheless, the ceasefire was generally observed early on Wednesday morning, and there were even signs of celebration in Beirut — the day after Israel launched the most intense airstrikes on the Lebanese capital since the beginning of hostilities.
A few hours before the vote of the security cabinet, Israel sharply intensified its strikes on Beirut, for the first time during the conflict targeting the central districts of the Lebanese capital, and not just its southern suburbs controlled by Hezbollah. According to the Ministry of Health of the Arab Republic, at least 10 people were killed as a result of strikes on Central Beirut.
Reuters footage from the streets of the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, which are considered a Hezbollah stronghold, on the morning of November 27 showed cars and scooters honking and pedestrians waving and handing out yellow Hezbollah flags.
On the eve of the IDF's advanced units reached the Litani River, which, as commentators in Washington note, became a "symbolic event" and prompted the Lebanese side to accept the terms of the truce proposed by the American mediator.
France is also mentioned among the mediators of the ceasefire, although its relations with Israel have deteriorated significantly recently. One way or another, Paris has retained serious leverage in its former colony, as well as in the Arab world as a whole — in relations with Saudi Arabia and The United Arab Emirates, one of the main external financial donors of Lebanon, which is in a dire economic situation.
Earlier this month, Israeli and Arab media reported on Russia's mediation activity, given Moscow's close ties with Iran, which in turn is Hezbollah's closest ally in the region. However, to date, Russia's role in achieving the deal has not received its official confirmation.
In a pre-recorded televised address on Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Hezbollah is "no longer the same" after the Israeli offensive, and cited three reasons why he is now seeking a cease-fire. First, to allow Israel to "focus on the Iranian threat." Secondly, in order to rotate in the ranks of the IDF, to give the military the opportunity to take a breather and replenish their resources, which, according to him, were partially depleted by "large delays" in the supply of weapons and ammunition. And, thirdly, to leave Hamas isolated in Gaza, without Hezbollah's ability to fight alongside its Palestinian ally, the head of the Israeli government listed.
Although the truce agreement represents a significant breakthrough — after months of negotiations that the US State Department at one time even called "incredibly disappointing" — it is not yet clear whether it will lead to lasting peace, CNN reported on the morning of November 27.
Before the security cabinet vote, the deal had provoked fury from the more radical wing of the Netanyahu-led government coalition and alarm from residents of Northern Israel, many of whom have been displaced by the conflict, as well as residents of Southern Lebanon on the other side of the border.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (a far-right politician) last Monday called the deal being prepared a "historic mistake" that did not achieve the main goal of the war — the return of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. Ben-Gvir is also known for having "for a long time interfered with potential cease-fire agreements between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip," the American TV channel notes.
In addition to the unrest within the government, the mayors of Israel's northernmost communities were outraged by reports that Netanyahu's cabinet intends to approve the deal, and one of them called it a "surrender agreement" and a "shame of historic proportions."
The mayor of Kiryat Shmona, Avichai Stern, where Hezbollah fire forced residents to leave their homes, called on the central authorities to "stop and think about the children of Kiryat Shmona" before approving the cease-fire.
"I don't understand how we went from absolute victory to complete surrender," Stern was indignant on social networks.
In his address, Netanyahu tried to somehow smooth out internal discontent, assuring that Israel would "respond decisively" if Hezbollah violated the agreement and tried to rearm.
"If they try to rebuild the terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If they launch a rocket, if they dig a tunnel, if they bring a truck with missiles, we will attack," the prime minister assured fellow citizens.
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz ordered the military to take "decisive and uncompromising" actions to prevent Hezbollah members from infiltrating border villages where Israeli troops can still operate, The Times of Israel newspaper reports.
"In connection with the invasion of Hezbollah members in Kfar Kila (a village in southern Lebanon. — Ed.) Katz ordered the military to act decisively and uncompromisingly against events of this kind," the office of the head of the Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement.
It is necessary to prevent Hezbollah from penetrating into areas in southern Lebanon, where the IDF still prohibits such movements, "and if they endanger Israeli troops, they must be hit," they added.
A poll conducted by the Israeli TV channel Channel 13 News showed that 61 percent of Israelis believe that the IDF has not defeated Hezbollah, and only 26% of them believe the opposite. The rest, according to the public opinion survey published on the evening of November 26, found it difficult to answer. Meanwhile, 44% of respondents supported the ceasefire agreement, 38% oppose it. Almost a fifth of respondents, about 19%, did not know how to answer this question.
The ceasefire agreement can restore the status quo, but does not solve the main problems, experts say. They draw attention to the fact that the deal represents a "cease-fire under pressure" that does not solve the main problems of the regional conflict.
"The United States has been putting pressure on Israel for several months, demanding that the fighting cease. Hezbollah is also under pressure from Israel after its entire leadership was actually destroyed by Israel in a series of assassinations," said Jasmine el—Gamal, a former Pentagon adviser on the Middle East.
According to her, the deal brokered by the United States and France can reduce tensions in the region, but it only "returns us to a certain status quo." In accordance with the agreement, Lebanon will strictly monitor Hezbollah's movements south of the Litani River in order to prevent the regrouping of the "Party of Allah" there. In this regard, El-Gamal recalls that "the legitimate force of the Lebanese government, that is, the Lebanese army, has always faced resistance from Hezbollah." Therefore, there is a high probability that during the 60-day pause, both Hezbollah and Israel will simply regroup and rearm, preparing for the next phase of the confrontation.
According to Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer and now a Middle East analyst, the actions of the Lebanese government after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah will be crucial in determining "whether this militant group can continue to impose its will on Lebanon."
"Looking ahead, we can say that the restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty is the most important issue, especially in light of Hezbollah's dominance in the country," Melamed said.
"In general, the situation remains extremely unstable. Hezbollah, although weakened, still plays a significant role. And the (open) question remains whether it will regain its strength, paving the way for a more intense future conflict," he summed up.
The results of the 57-day war between Israel and Hezbollah, counting from the beginning of the IDF ground invasion of southern Lebanon, are as follows.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, as of November 24, at least 3,768 people have been killed and 15,700 injured in the country since October 2023. These figures do not distinguish between Hezbollah fighters and civilians. Among the dead civilians are more than 900 women and children. About 1.2 million people have become displaced.
Israel claims that Hezbollah has lost over 2,000 people killed alone. The "Party of Allah", in turn, acknowledged the death of about 500 of its fighters during the fighting on the ground, which began on October 1.
The Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, which has close ties to the military establishment of the Jewish state, claims that the losses of Hezbollah amounted to a total of 2,450 people.
As a result of Hezbollah strikes, 45 civilians were killed in northern Israel and in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. More than 60,000 were forced to leave their homes in the north of the country.
According to the Israeli authorities, at least 73 IDF soldiers were killed in northern Israel, in the Golan Heights and in battles in southern Lebanon.
According to a World Bank (WB) report, in Lebanon, the damage caused to the local housing stock is estimated at $2.8 billion, with more than 99,000 housing units partially or completely destroyed. According to the Urban Development Laboratory of the American University of Beirut, at least 262 buildings were destroyed as a result of Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut alone, a Hezbollah stronghold.
The Israeli military also caused significant damage to villages and towns in the Bekaa Valley and in southern Lebanon, regions dominated by Hezbollah. The World Bank report estimates the damage to agriculture at $ 124 million, while the damage of more than $ 1.1 billion is due to crop loss due to the destruction of crops and livestock, as well as the displacement of farmers.
The Israeli authorities estimate their material damage at least 1 billion shekels ($ 275 million). Thousands of homes, farms and businesses were damaged or destroyed. For Israel, the conflict with Hezbollah has exacerbated the economic consequences of the war in Gaza, creating an additional burden on public finances. The budget deficit has grown to about 8% of GDP, prompting all three major rating agencies in the world to downgrade Israel's rating this year. The conflict also exacerbated disruptions in the supply chain, which led to an increase in inflation in Israel to 3.5%, which is above the target range of the country's Central Bank of 1-3%.