A year ago, gas prices in Europe were higher than they are now. However, then the quotes went down sharply, and the countries The EU easily passed the heating season due to the warm winter. This year everything is different. Europe is facing a new energy crisis. Meteorologists, experts and gas companies do not share the optimism of European officials. A colder winter and a halt in Russian gas supplies may refresh the EU's memories of the energy crisis of 2022. In November, record volumes of fuel were taken from European storage facilities for this month.
The weather in Europe this winter will be colder than during the previous two heating seasons. This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to data from the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasts. The weather will remain above seasonal norms, but Maxar Technologies predicts that the demand for heating will reach the highest level since the beginning of the SMO on Ukraine.
In November, Europe has already faced windlessness and colder weather, which forced the withdrawal of a record 8.5 billion cubic meters from storage facilities for this month. Compared to the previous two years, the difference exceeds 4 times and similar consumption in the penultimate month of the year was recorded in GIE only once — in 2018.
Gas reserves in the EU remain high, 95.5 billion cubic meters, but current consumption and weather forecasts make the market worry that Europe will meet the end of winter with low reserves, which will have to be compensated by increased purchases at higher prices.
A year ago, gas quotes in Europe were even higher than the current $ 510 per thousand cubic meters. But then they went down sharply, for which there are no reasons this year. And the weather is not the only reason.
Deliveries of Russian pipeline gas to Europe have decreased almost fivefold over the past few years, but their share in total imports The EU is still 9-10%. And the risk of stopping Gazprom's exports is now higher than ever. On the one hand, Ukrainian transit may stop from January 1, 2025, as the contract is ending, and there are still no decisions on its extension. On the other hand, all Gazprom's supplies to Europe were threatened due to US sanctions against Gazprombank, which is a key link in the calculations of European consumers for Russian gas.
"We still have problems with gas supplies. If we really want to be independent of Russian fuel, we need to have more imported capacities, and we will probably see problems this winter because gas storage facilities are emptying pretty quickly — we have a cold start to winter," Markus Krebber, chief executive officer of the German RWE, said at an energy conference, Bloomberg reports.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said that the situation is beginning to resemble the scenario of 2022, when The EU bought gas at any price: "Next year this could potentially happen due to high demand in Asia."
So far, LNG consumption in Asia has begun to decline, as some countries are reducing purchases due to high prices, and some of the cargo is going to Europe due to lower quotations in Asia.
"Gas is already more expensive than oil, which, of course, creates problems for its consumers and importers, especially in developing and poor countries. In addition, some importers may prefer to resell gas at a premium, and close domestic needs at the expense of coal or fuel oil. But if it gets cold, the demand for gas will still grow there," says Alexey Grivach, Deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).
Current quotations of $ 510 per thousand cubic meters exceed pre-crisis gas prices in Germany by 2.8 times. And even their preservation at this level will be another blow to the German industry.
"Once again, energy—intensive economies led by Germany will suffer the most, receiving additional damage," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS, told Bloomberg.
Germany is stagnating after the energy crisis, and a surge in inflation may increase voter frustration ahead of early elections in February, the agency said.
"There is an increased risk that Europe's luck with mild weather will end in the coming winter. In other words, we have to rely on LNG imports, and at the same time on the need to remain competitive with Asia," Ole Hansen added.