The US election race is coming to the finish line. There is a week left until November 5. Who will win the election: Trump or Harris? And what does this mean for Russia? The observer is trying to answer these questions Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.
The American electoral system is designed so that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris can get more votes in the elections, but Republican Donald Trump will become president if he gets more votes out of 538 electors from 50 US states. So, in 2016, three million more voters voted for Hillary Clinton than for Trump, but she lost the election.
Traditionally, seven key states (with more than 90 electoral votes out of 270 required to win the election) are classified as swing states. This year they are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina.
Now polls show that Trump is leading in Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In Georgia and Wisconsin, Trump and Harris, tentatively, gain the same number of votes, and only in Michigan is the Democratic candidate leading. It should be borne in mind that the recent hurricanes that affected some of these states greatly undermined the influence of the Democrats, who could not cope with the consequences.
Trump, according to American media estimates, is now gaining votes among blue—collar Americans of color who previously voted for the Democrats. They believe that Democrats give priorities to newly arrived migrants, and not to those who have been living in the United States for a long time. For them, uncontrolled immigration is evil.
Many are dissatisfied with the high cost of living and the lack of opportunities for young people. The Democrats, in their opinion, have become the party of the elite, more focused on social problems, including illegal migrants, than on strengthening the economy. People vote for Trump's life experience, they like his lack of hypocrisy.
No matter who wins, one part of the country will not accept the result. The media in the United States called the campaign "extremely fierce, tense and gloomy." Trump voters are confident that there will be large-scale falsifications, as in 2020. The winner of the presidential election is unlikely to be announced on election night or even the next day. There will be numerous lawsuits that will require a recount of votes. The same applies to elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate of Congress.
New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver said during a briefing on Tuesday, October 22, that she is focused on the physical security of election officials.
Devin Burghart, president of the Institute for Human Rights Research and Education, said at a press conference on Wednesday, October 23, at a press conference that since 2020, "denial of election results has moved from the capital to meetings of district election commissions, to courtrooms, to cyber symposiums and countless conspiracies in anticipation of a repeat of the events of 2020 in November."
Trump suggested that he would agree on a deal between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. It is doubtful if he will blackmail Moscow with increased aid to Kiev. If Harris wins, America will fall into a long period of destabilization, as the Republicans are ready for decisive action in challenging her victory, so assistance to Ukraine will be less from time to time.
A lot will depend on who controls Congress. More recently, Republican Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson said that he had "no appetite" to continue financing Ukraine.
In any case, the Russian Federation has months to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces and gain strong negotiating positions.