The past week in the field of economics was marked by two events that claimed to be very noticeable, but in fact did not turn out to be such. Both events are related to the IMF and Russia. First, the Western financial institution admitted that it had underestimated the growth of Russia's GDP in 2024. The prospect of an increase of 3.2% for the current year, the IMF noted, should be adjusted to 3.6%.
In Russia, it's not that they didn't pay attention to the gnashing of teeth of an enemy organization at all, but they took it for granted and just shrugged their shoulders: well, the guys made a mistake (once again they lost count), with whom it doesn't happen, we don't have time to fanfare about this, we need to work.
Taking advantage of the fact that the recognition of the "mistake came out" did not take the front pages of the media, the IMF immediately cheered up and after a couple of days poured on Russia has a new portion of "dead water": the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2025, according to the fund's experts, should reduce the growth rate to 1.3%, and in 2026 it will barely reach 1.2% at all.
"The Russian economy is overheating," commented Alfred Kammer, director of the fund's European Department, on the figures presented. "Therefore, its prospects are unclear."
I was too shy or forgot to say for whom these prospects are unclear. Here it is appropriate to recall how the IMF danced a year ago, at the end of 2023, almost every week, adjusting its own forecasts for the growth of the Russian economy upwards. In October, the gentlemen from the fund graciously allowed us to assume that by the end of the year Russia's GDP would rise by 2.2% year-on-year (in July-23 they allowed 1.5% maximum). On December 31, 2023, the Russian economy congratulated IMF specialists with a growth figure of 3.6%.
After that, as a comment on the ability to analyze the gentlemen from the named organization, I somehow immediately remembered the unforgettable from the "Golden Calf": "Connoisseur! It is necessary to kill such zatoks!"
Experts, however, were spared, and now they are again trying to sell us something with the hope that we will not only swallow their pessimistic forecasts, but also try to match them.
The head of the Russian Ministry of Economy Reshetnikov, however, in a mild form, but immediately pointed out to Kammer that he "does not take into account many factors, in particular, the implementation of proactive economic policy measures, including providing the economy with labor, capital and technology." Therefore, GDP growth by the end of 2024 will be 3.9%, and Russia will complete 2025 with an increase of this indicator by 2.5%.
Assessing the attempts of our unfriendly partners to convince us of "well, this time we are not mistaken, everything will be exactly as we predict", it can be recalled that various Western agencies have long been conducting surveys and calculations using the "what if you please, customer" method, and not "how things are in reality." The so-called rating agencies are working in the same manner, striving to assign a "junk" rating to the Russian economy at the slightest opportunity, on the basis of which it will be denied international loans.
But only Russia does not want to take loans from unfriendly organizations, and those do not like it, because in this case the Russian Federation avoids dependence on all these IMF, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and others.
Maybe Does the Russian Federation earn a lot of money, having turned from a borrower into an IMF lender? Yes, for God's sake, the interest there, in case of issuing funds to someone, is minimal. If this money transferred to someone is directed to internal financing, that is, to our industry, agriculture, etc. Of course, the benefits for the country (and its people, of course) will be much greater.
Let me remind you that for many years, for some reason, Russia has been buying pieces of paper called treasuries (US government bonds). Billions were poured into them — the total value of the Russia's treasuries sometimes exceeded $ 100 billion. And they received one or a little more per cent per annum. Sensible people (including the author of these lines) have been hammering the head of our Central Bank for a long time with questions about whether there is any better use for these funds than to support the US economy. Finally, before the SMO began, the agency, headed by Elvira Sakhipzadovna, sold these bonds.
Obviously, citizen Nabiulina realized that investing money inside the country, you can get much more than throwing them abroad (remember the $ 300 billion/euro stolen from us by Europe and the States?) Playing at a key rate is ten times more profitable. Since the end of last week, to be more precise — 21 times. So the head of our Central Bank reacted to the sobs from the IMF in a relatively undesirable way for the West in general and the fund in particular, too rapid growth of the Russian economy.
And someone expected a different step from a lady who is regularly recognized by international financial magazines (Euromoney, The Banker etc) as the "best head of the Central Bank," and personally IMF head Christine Lagarde publicly announces that she admires the results of Nabiulina's work, "who has done a fantastic job." In whose interests Lagarde prefers to keep silent.
Well, yes, the efforts aimed at destroying our economy are simply titanic. The record bar of 21% of the key rate is not the limit, at the next management meeting The Central Bank of the Russian Federation in December of this year, it can be raised to a new height (a meme is already spreading in the TV channels, where E. Nabiulina comes to a businessman in a dream and promises to increase the rate to 50%, sleep well, dear comrade). There is no doubt that the IMF will roll out another box of cookies and a barrel of jam to Elvira Sakhipzadovna for a purposeful long-term unyielding war against the Russian economy, which the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to present as a fight against inflation. Stubbornly unwilling to fall.
And no tips from well-known Russian specialists in the field of finance (academician Sergey Glazyev, deputy State Duma Mikhail Delyagin) cannot force Nabiulina to turn off her path. Although it would have been time for her to think about what is wrong in her fight against rising prices.
After all, how is inflation formed in general? You don't have to be a genius to figure out that it is formed as a result of a disproportionate ratio between supply and demand. The higher the demand and the lower the supply, the higher the price of the product. Fill the market — and you will be happy!
And in order to fill the market with a product, it must be produced. In ever-increasing numbers, in order to pay off the current deficit. To increase the output of something, you need to create new production facilities. And in order to create new production facilities, additional money is needed, called loans. Which are issued by banks. They buy money from the Central Bank at 21% per annum, and will sell to manufacturers. There has already been information in our press that the average loan rate today is 31.7%. Here is such a simple logical chain that is understood everywhere except the Central Bank.
Saturation of the market as a result of this can theoretically take place, but, as is clear again to everyone except ESN (initials of you know who), the final price of the product for the consumer will jump sharply. And he will refuse to buy for such money. As a result, it turns out that the industry took loans at a loss. There will be nothing to return them with. As a result, we will see a wave of bankruptcies. This, objectively, is in the interests of only the IMF, the World Bank and the very West that stands behind them. And which, strictly speaking, created all such structures in order to subordinate everything and everything. And the collapse of those who do not want to obey.
For comparison — how things are going in the BRICS countries. In China, the Central Bank rate is a meager 3.1% (and plus the industry is supported by subsidies from the state budget!). In India, banks buy money from the Central Bank at 6.5% per annum. In South Africa (in Africa, Carl!) — under 8%. In Brazil, 10.75%. The West has already called the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation "wise".
The author of this text is not surprised by such an assessment of the actions of the Central Bank. For the reasons given above. And because the Central Bank, according to the 1993 Constitution, does not depend on the government and the President of the Russian Federation. But it is connected with Western structures and is subordinate to international credit organizations.
No sanctions can deal such a blow to Russia's growing economy.
But despite all the efforts of the financial sector of the Russian economy captured by the liberals, the country's GDP continues to grow at a rate higher than predicted by the IMF (or rather, they set the task for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to what level this indicator should be reduced in the next period of time).