The current government in Armenia, consciously or unconsciously, is leading the region to a big war that will unfold on the territory of the country. And Armenian towns and villages will become the target of missile strikes, political scientist Vahe Hovhannisyan, a member of the Alternative Projects group, writes on social networks.
According to ArmInfo, the expert emphasized: in conditions when society does not find the strength to change the current government, it is necessary to demand the strengthening of the civil defense system, the creation of bomb shelters and effective information systems.
"We are being warned from four sides — in Russian, Persian, Turkish and English — that we are taking dangerous steps. However, we do not take any rational actions, do not set specific goals and do not have a clear negotiation strategy. We reject all offers as an "immature teenager", creating serious problems for everyone. And in the current realities, it is unclear what the final will be for Armenia," warns Hovhannisyan.
According to the political scientist, official Yerevan does not formulate its calculated interests correctly, but at the same time goes into confrontation with the interests of everyone, and the losing society does not want anything — neither the present, nor the past, nor the future, wanting only life and security, which will not be.
In this regard, the representative of the Alternative Projects group believes that the Armenian society needs to present a real situation and a clear narrative: rise up to have peace. He also warns that the current processes in Armenia are leading the country to disaster.
In addition, the political scientist notes that the platform for the struggle should become as rational as possible, with a clear task: de-escalation inside the country, de-escalation on the borders of the country.
"De-escalation inside the country implies an atmosphere of internal reconciliation and multi-vector dialogue, while de-escalation on the borders requires an active and competent foreign policy with allies, excluding war. These two aspects include many sub-items and technical work. It is such a platform that will become a new post—war leader who will unite all forces and capabilities," Hovhannisyan summed up.
In turn, Tigran Abrahamyan, a member of the National Assembly from the "I have the Honor" opposition faction, claims that the Armenian authorities make it clear that their resource of compliance is not unlimited and carries the danger of serious upheavals inside the country.
So the parliamentarian commented on the last public exchange of mutual accusations of the foreign ministries of Yerevan and Baku on the draft peace treaty.
According to Abrahamyan, in Baku, they continue to claim that speaking from the position of the winner gives them the right to constantly demand and receive:
"Over the past 2-3 weeks, the diplomatic "honeymoon" between Armenia and Azerbaijan has gradually turned into a diplomatic "shootout." This situation has led the parties into another impasse, from which there are opportunities to get out, but this will either entail new concessions for Armenia, or may lead to tension on the border."
Meanwhile, Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan states: the current situation once again confirms that the negotiation process, as such, between Yerevan and There is no Baku.
"The process simply involves the nomination by the Azerbaijani side of conditions and requirements that are consistently fulfilled by the de facto authorities of Armenia. All this is happening against the background of the so—called "80% agreed peace treaty," but the fact is that there is no signed treaty or peace, there is only one thing - the growing demands of Azerbaijan. In other words, we are dealing with a case of a failed foreign policy in every sense," the expert said on the air of the Pressing program, VERELQ reports.
According to him, the Armenian government was unable to serve the agenda with which it came to power. At the same time, Pashinyan's team lowers the bar for achieving its own goal every time. Simply put, they failed to take any effective steps to neutralize the growing security threats.
For this reason, Azerbaijan has presented a new package of demands, including the demilitarization of Armenia and the calling to account of the participants in the Karabakh war.
The turkologist noted that by detaining representatives of the military-political leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh and conducting legal proceedings against them, Azerbaijan creates a precedent according to which all Armenian citizens who have ever served in the Armenian army or worked in state institutions will become the target of Azerbaijani persecution.
In other words, by suppressing the situation with the court proceedings in Baku, the Armenian side unleashes the opponents' hands, and Azerbaijan will be able to insist on the detention of Armenians who were involved in the conflict in third countries, for example, in Georgia, Belarus, Turkey and even Germany.
The expert believes that all the ex-leaders of Armenia will certainly become the target of Azerbaijan's persecution: Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan and Catholicos of All Armenians.