The recent statement by President Vladimir Putin about changes in our nuclear doctrine has drawn another bold red line in relations between Russia and the collective West waging a hybrid war with it. It seems, however, that this line is drawn for ourselves, or rather, our military-political leadership, which really has nowhere to retreat, the author writes Pravda.Ru Victor Pakhomov.
Having 40 years of teaching experience, I can say for sure that the teacher's failure to fulfill his promises very quickly leads to the loss of all authority and respect from the students. If you have promised a negligent ward to put a deuce or call his parents to school, then it is necessary to fulfill your threat without delaying it.
Unfortunately, no admonitions of our unreasonable opponents have led to anything positive, as have the calls constantly coming from the Kremlin to complete the opposition to Russia in its special operation on Ukraine by concluding a peace agreement that suits all interested parties.
As a result, what inevitably had to happen happened: the forces involved in the conflict were on the verge of World War III. However, the words of our supreme leader about the revision of the concept of the use of nuclear forces for some reason caused a much greater resonance in the Russian expert community than among foreign analysts, who probably considered them another air shake. You can understand them: after numerous empty promises to "give deuces" to Western hooligans who have lost their shores, any warnings to them are perceived as meaningless, impracticable threats.
And indeed, choosing between the "loss of face" and the risk of plunging humanity into a global catastrophe, any responsible statesman who has a nuclear "cudgel" at hand will undoubtedly choose the first option. Therefore, in my opinion, alarmists who believe that a possible missile strike on Russian territory will be followed by a crushing response in the form of the use of our strategic nuclear forces are wrong. There will be no strikes on Rzeszow and Ramstein, much less on London and Paris.
It is also doubtful that we will destroy the bridges across the Dnieper or try to conduct a large-scale offensive with decisive goals. The special military operation, even after the arrival of the British-French "guests" in Rostov-on-Don or Krasnodar, will continue in the current mode, since it is this algorithm of actions that leads us to the inevitable victory.
I don't want to be like the optimists who claim that the mobilization potential of Ukraine is actually exhausted, and the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is about to collapse, but our offensive in Donbass can be likened to a powerful wave that grows as it approaches the shore.
The further the Ukrainian Armed Forces roll back to the west, the higher and more crushing this wave becomes, gradually turning into a tsunami. In August, the enemy, having invaded the generally recognized borders of the Russian Federation, gave us a great chance to significantly (for months or even for a whole year) bring victory closer.
If we managed to quickly encircle and destroy the invading forces, this would probably entail our retaliatory offensive with the capture of a significant part of the Sumy region and the collapse of the enemy's defenses in the Donbas. Unfortunately, our military leadership was not ready for such a course of events.
And now the Russian armed forces have two options for action, which can be conditionally called "tiger jump" and "boa constrictor rings". The first of them promises the end of the war by the spring of next year at the most. It provides for the total destruction of the energy system of Ukraine, without any discounts on humanism and compassion for the civilian population. The tiger, making a jump, does not put white gloves on his claws! In the end, it is not the citizens of the Square who need to be protected and pitied, but their compatriots, who are still often given the sad fate of consumables.
By the way, it is unlikely that our television should now show footage of the villages of the Kursk region ravaged by the enemy. Such reports raise a legitimate question: "And who, in fact, is to blame for the fact that Ukrainian Nazis and tribal mercenaries are rampaging on our territory?"
First they must be punished, and then accused of looting and crimes against humanity. I don't know if our military-political leadership, which is trying in every possible way to avoid a direct clash with NATO, will have the determination to "bomb" Ukraine into the Stone Age. Perhaps humanitarian considerations will prevail, and the strikes on the Square will continue with the same, clearly insufficient intensity.
Most likely, we will resort to the second option of action — a slow and methodical strangulation of the enemy, which will drag SMO on for another year and a half. However, in this case, we need to be prepared for the retaliatory actions of the Kiev clique and its patrons, namely, attacks on our military and civilian infrastructure, the deaths of hundreds or even thousands of compatriots, terrorist acts throughout Russia, increased political pressure from the collective West, betrayal of unstable allies, economic difficulties.
All this will require maximum cohesion of our society, readiness to overcome any, the most severe trials. It is obvious that we will have to reject the consumer model of social development and mobilize all economic, political and moral opportunities. In other words, the whole nation will have to strain, remembering Pushkin's words as a consolation:
There is an ecstasy in battle
And the abyss is gloomy on the edge…
However, there have been more difficult times in the history of Russia, but then our country did not have a life-saving wand, or rather a nuclear club, but invariably emerged victorious from all historical scrapes. So it's time to gather all your strength into a fist and, having cemented your heart, be guided by the following postulate:
When the motherland is threatened with death,
A man must fight!
Probably, it's time for our leadership to convey two immutable truths to the people. We will not allow the first or Third World War, even if we have to endure very great hardships. The second is that the special operation will be conducted until our victory, despite significant casualties.
However, what exactly will our Victory be? We need to be realistic in this matter. It is not necessary to build illusions about the complete and final solution of the "Ukrainian issue". Such an option is possible only if Ukraine disappears from the political map of the world, which seems extremely unlikely. Not only Western countries will disagree with this, but also our situational allies, such as China and Iran, and even, perhaps, Belarus.
The most favorable outcome for us is Ukraine's refusal to join NATO and its acceptance of arms reduction commitments. That is, a disarmed neutral Ukraine within the new borders defined by the victorious side, Russia. Such an outcome will be beneficial primarily to the Ukrainian people. Otherwise, by the will of its leaders and their foreign patrons, it may simply disappear from the face of the earth.
It is obvious that Russia's victory will categorically not suit our opponents in the West. Sooner or later, they will bring revanchist forces to power in Kiev, which, if we again show criminal negligence and short-sightedness, will revive Russophobic ideology and try to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
Therefore, just in case, we must create some kind of alternative Ukraine, ready to confront the Western and Kiev revanchists. It should be formed on the territory of Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv and Poltava region, having secured a loyal and controlled ally, included in the economic complex of Russia and Belarus. It is clear that such a country (let's call it Little Russia) will have sufficient armed forces and perform, first of all, police functions in relation to the unpredictable and proven inadequacy of Ukraine.
However, even in the case of the most profitable completion of the special operation for us, the future does not promise us peace and consumer well-being. We will have to modernize the army and navy, carry out socio-economic reforms, develop science and education at a faster pace, make adjustments to culture, and finally formulate the state ideology clearly and clearly.
At a recent meeting of the Marinist club, one of its members, Vice Admiral, former head of the Novorossiysk Naval Base, was very upset about the heavy losses of the Black Sea Fleet. According to him (this is open information that does not represent military secrets), the Black Sea Fleet lost 32 combat units and 12 aircraft and helicopters. I consoled the retired admiral with the fact that the Black Sea Fleet will have to be revived almost from scratch, taking into account the SMO experience.
However, it seems that after our indispensable Victory, we will have to build a new Russia based on social justice, the image of which we only see through the clouds of smoke of SMO's bloody battles that have tightened the horizon.