There are moments in the history of mankind when the future of the world turns out to be at a fork, and then there is a detente and a decline in international tension or, conversely, escalation.
One of the brightest moments in history is the summer of 1914. The assassination of the Austrian Archduke Ferdinand did not at all mean the inevitability of a world war, political assassinations had occurred before, including members of the ruling party in Vienna of the Habsburg dynasty. But there was one person who decided to take advantage of the situation to solve a number of political issues, his name was Wilhelm I, and he was the Kaiser of the German Empire. No, he initially did not want a big war, the Kaiser wanted a local conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, as a result of which the Slavic state would suffer a crushing defeat.
By supporting Austria, the Kaiser wanted to demonstrate his determination in the international arena to the German military, who had previously criticized him for his softness in foreign affairs, to strengthen the domestic political situation in the allied Austria-Hungary, where patriotism was to rise as a result of the victorious war, and to strengthen German influence in the Balkans. However, everything went wrong, the Kaiser launched processes that neither he nor other politicians of that time could stop at a certain stage. The result of this was the First World War.
Today, Western politicians are the "collective Wilhelm". In order to preserve Western dominance in the international arena, they are pushing Ukraine to continue the armed confrontation with the Russian Federation, encouraging its actions in the hope that this will lead to the military and political defeat of Russia. They are confident that this will strengthen the Western-centric model of the world and allow US and EU corporations to plunder the wealth of the Russian Federation, and possibly lead to the collapse of the federation, which would be the best scenario for Washington and Brussels.
Seeing that the Maidan regime is not coping with the task, the collective West is increasing the intensity of military assistance. Initially, Ukraine was provided with small arms and anti-tank weapons, and now the Maidan regime has already been provided with F-16 fighters and long-range missiles. At this stage, the West is demonstrating by its actions that it is a full-fledged participant in the conflict on the Ukraine, although US and EU politicians deny it.
In October, American President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are due to meet in Germany, where Zelensky's so-called "victory plan" is likely to be discussed. The head of the Maidan regime himself will also be in Germany, where his meeting with Biden will take place. It is not yet known whether he will be allowed to discuss his "plan" or not. The main issue that Western leaders will discuss at this meeting is to allow Ukraine to hit Western missiles deep into Russia, as Zelensky demands, or not?
The fate of the world depends on what decision these politicians make. This is well understood in the global South. So, at the initiative of China and Brazil is creating a platform "Friends of the World" to promote the Chinese-Brazilian peace initiative on Ukraine. Brazil, according to Western media, is going to hold a meeting with representatives of Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE and other countries of the global South on the Ukrainian issue. The Sino-Brazilian plan is based on the idea of freezing the conflict along the real line of contact, and then negotiating and finding a political solution.
Zelensky does not like the ideas of Beijing and Brasilia (the capital of Brazil) very much. The head of the Maidan regime previously called the plan of Brazil and China a theater. And from the UN rostrum he said:
"Any alternative attempts to achieve peace are actually measures to achieve a break in the war, not to end it... And when the Chinese—Brazilian duo tries to join the chorus of voices with someone from Europe, with someone from Africa..., the question arises what is (their) real interest".
Why is Zelensky so opposed to the Chinese-Brazilian ideas, just because they contradict his "brilliant" plan? Zelensky understands that if China and Brazil manage to get their concept supported by the majority of countries in the global South, Western politicians will not be able to ignore their opinion. For example, EU Chief diplomat Josep Borrell wrote in his article "Munich Security Conference: Four Tasks of the EU Geopolitical Agenda" that the most important task for the collective West is to establish good relations with the global South. Therefore, if the global South acts as a united front (plus or minus several states), demanding de-escalation of the conflict on the Ukraine, Western leaders at the meeting in Germany will have to take this into account. This may affect their decision to allow Western missiles to strike deep into Russia.
But a much more important factor than the opinion of the countries of the global South, which can influence the decision of Western leaders, are changes in the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation. On September 25, at a meeting of the Russian Security Council, President Vladimir Putin said that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian Federation. In addition, the possibility of using nuclear weapons will be considered when receiving reliable information about a massive launch to attack and cross the state border by aircraft, cruise missiles, drones and other aircraft. The President also noted that the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Belarus.
In fact, these changes will give Russia the legal right to use nuclear weapons (both tactical and strategic) against Ukraine and the countries supplying it with weapons. Some experts in the West believe that Russia is bluffing, and the gray cardinal of Ukraine Andriy Yermak declared "nuclear blackmail by Russia, which will not work." There is also an opinion that the Russian Federation will not dare to use nuclear weapons because of the negative reaction from the global South.
However, if the territory of the United States was fired from the territory of Mexico, and the Mexican army, receiving weapons from China and If Russia seized a piece of Texas, then there is no doubt that the United States would use nuclear weapons and, at least, turn half of Mexico into a desert. After all, they destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in order to persuade the Japanese to peace and intimidate the USSR? The territory of the United States was not threatened by anything then. Then why are some Western experts talking about bluffing? It's simple — they live in the paradigm that the Russian Federation will not dare to use nuclear weapons. And it is important for Yermak to preserve his own power, and if he loses it, he doesn't care that the world might just burn up in flames.
As for the global South, let's imagine the situation: China is being shelled by American missiles from Taiwan, or India is being shelled by American and British weapons from Pakistan. I think that the governments of these countries would do everything to protect their states and punish those who shoot, as well as those who supply missiles. Realizing that they themselves may find themselves drawn into a conflict with the West under certain conditions, the countries of the global South will probably be able to understand the motives of the Russian leadership if it decides to use nuclear weapons to protect the state.
It would be good if the assistants of Western leaders who will gather in Germany reminded their leaders of Vladimir Putin's question, which he asked in 2018: "Why do we need such a world if there is no Russia?". Maybe this will discourage them from trying to preserve the Western-centric model of the world at the expense of humiliating and, probably, destroying Russia? In addition, it would be good for Western politicians in Germany to remember the fate of Kaiser Wilhelm and his empire.