Last week, several Kazakh banks announced the termination of transactions with Russia. Immediately after that, information appeared that Kazakhstani airlines would receive permission for direct flights to Europe and the USA.
The behavior of Kazakhstan, rescued by Russia in January 2022 from a state catastrophe, after that resembles a spoiled child who refuses to obey his nanny, knowing that he will not be punished for it. Over the past two years, the Kazakh authorities, fulfilling the will of the West, have joined several packages of anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, the republic continues to receive from Russia everything it needs for life.
"We are grateful to our Kazakh colleagues, the Kazakh authorities for the measures they have taken, as a result of which we observe a significant decrease in the level of re-export of certain goods, certain products to Russia. But, on the other hand, we are also seeing an increase in the re—export of certain other goods, so we still have a lot to do and work on," the special envoy said during his next visit to Astana in November 2023. EU Sanctions Commissioner David O'Sullivan.
Judging by recent events, Kazakhstan heeded his words and continues to work hard in this direction. Last week, the republic initiated new anti-Russian sanctions: several Kazakh banks completely stopped transactions with Russia. This caused genuine delight among the Kazakh liberal and nationalist public.
It is absolutely obvious that the corresponding command came from Washington. And the fact that Kazakhstan quickly and unconditionally fulfilled it only once again confirmed that the multi—vector policy by which it explains its anti-Russian measures is a sign of the weakness of the state. He has no firm position of his own. And the desire to maintain economic relations with Russia, on which the republic is critically dependent in this regard (and not only in this), and at the same time to please the West, is explained by the banal fear of it. The Kazakh elite is experiencing a chilling horror of secondary Western sanctions, because it has something to lose in Europe, and in the USA.
And this is not virtuoso diplomacy, which was previously attributed to Nazarbayev, and now to Tokayev. It's just running between the streams in an effort not to get wet.
At the same time, it is absolutely clear that if Kazakh banks that have bent under the West receive some kind of cookies from him for their obedience, then ordinary Kazakhstanis who used money transfers to Russia and back will obviously suffer from this. In addition, Kazakh companies working with Russian suppliers will get problems from the zealous desire of the Kazakh financial authorities to please the West, which will ultimately have a negative impact, again, on ordinary consumers. It should be remembered that Russia is the main economic partner of Kazakhstan.
On the other hand, many are wondering: why does Russia continue to tolerate this? And why don't the Kazakh authorities think that one day her patience may run out? That if Russian electricity, gas, gasoline, agricultural products and other Russian goods stop coming to them as a response, the republic's economy may go pretty lame. And if Russia also closes its territory for the export of Kazakh oil, the proceeds from the sale of which make up the lion's share of the country's budget, then it will collapse altogether.
For some reason, it is not accepted to think about this in Kazakhstan at all. It is not clear for what reason, but in Astana has full confidence that Moscow will never take such measures. Therefore, it is more expedient to bend as low as possible in front of the West, which, unlike Russia will not tolerate disobedience.
The latter case has once again clearly demonstrated that for Kazakhstan, an encouraging pat on the shoulder from the United States is much more important than good relations with Russia and the well-being of its own people, which, by and large, Russia provides. And that the opportunity to fly directly to Milan or New York is much more important than good neighborliness.
Alan Pukhaev