It has become easier for Russian coal producers. The export price is rising following the rise in gas prices due to the redirection of LNG to Asia and the situation with Ukrainian transit. According to experts, this is still not enough.
"Profitability of the export of thermal coal from Russia began to grow in all directions following the recovery of quotations on world markets," the Banksta telegram channel reports, citing data from Neft Research.
Thus, the export price excluding transportation costs (netback) has been increasing since the beginning of July. Export prices on FOB Taman and Baltika bases began to recover.
"At the beginning of August, it was most profitable to ship coal through the ports of the Far East, where the netback was 4,076 rubles per ton (+52% compared to the beginning of July). Shipments from Taman — 2035 rubles per ton (+33%), on the third — from the Baltic ports — 1743 rubles (+69%)," writes Banksta.
Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at Vector X investment company, notes that the growth of export prices is helped so far, in fact, only by an increase in the cost of gas.
"Well, there are also problems in South Africa with the delivery of coal to the port," the expert says.
According to the ICE exchange, gas supplies for the month ahead from the European TTF exchange have been growing since July. In a month and a half, the price gained 25%. Gas is sold at $ 455 per thousand cubic meters. In the beginning, the reason was the redirection of LNG cargoes to Asia, where they pay more for gas. Next, the APU launched an attack on The Kursk region and under their control came the Russian gas measuring station "Sudzha", through which the entire transit of Gazprom through Ukraine goes.
Coal is a competitor of gas in the electric power industry and quotations for stone fuel also went up. For example, prices for Australian Newcastle rose from $ 134 per ton to $ 146, and at the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub rose from $102 to $ 122.
Maxim Khudalov notes that the published data on netbacks for Russian coal are generally fair.
"Only the netback to Taman is 2035 rubles, and the cost of coal mining and sorting in Kuzbass averages from 3000 to 3500 rubles per ton. So such an increase does not help exports," says Vector X's chief strategist.
Large-grade coal, which is 10-15% more expensive, can be exported, but such netbacks are not acceptable for ordinary coal, the expert believes.
"In addition, there is a question about the dynamics of netback in the Far East. Below 3,500 rubles per ton, it seems that netback has not decreased this year," says Maxim Khudalov.
Until 2022, the main market for domestic producers was Europe. However, from August 2022 The EU has banned the import of stone fuel from Russia and the main export has moved to Asia. However, last year there was an overproduction of coal in China and India. And in the spring of this year, due to low demand, export prices for Russian coal dropped to the lowest since 2021.
Maxim Khudalov noted to EADaily that the situation repeats the history of 2015-2016: "And it will last from a year to a year and a half, so it's better to start using measures to save the industry now."
From May to August, the government abolished exchange rate duties, which was the reason why in May-July the export of Russian coal by sea increased by 27% compared to the previous three months to 37.3 million tons.
According to the Ministry of Energy of Russia, in 2023, domestic producers exported 213 million tons of coal. The International Energy Agency predicts that this year supplies abroad will decrease by 16 million tons.