The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to control the Sudzha gas measuring station on the border in the Kursk region. However, transit continues and gas prices in Europe have calmed down. Experts note that American investment funds play on the stock exchanges, which pay attention not to the balance of supply and demand, but to news and geopolitical risks.
After the rise in gas prices due to the threat of stopping Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, the European gas market has cooled down somewhat. The main and only supply route, GIS "Sudzha" on the border in the Kursk region, continues to remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but transit continues.
According to the Ukrainian GTS Operator, 318 million cubic meters of gas passed through the station from August 6 to 13. As of August 14, the nomination is 42.4 million cubic meters. Data from the Slovak operator Eustream show that transportation is on schedule.
Stable supplies affect prices. If by August 9, the final prices of daily trading rose to $ 462 per thousand cubic meters — by more than 10% since August 6, then on August 14 they dropped to $ 445.
Experts noted to EADaily that price fluctuations are influenced not only by risks, but also by the exchange players themselves. S&P Global Platts reported that the share of American investment funds in gas exchange trading rose to 24%. Traders complained to the agency that new players do not care about such fundamental factors as supply and demand. Investment funds tend to trade and make money on news and algorithms, they noted, adding that because of this there are large fluctuations during trading.
This happened on August 14, when gas quotes rose again to $ 462, but then rolled back.
How the situation will develop further, obviously, depends on the real situation with transit — it will stop or not. It is important for all parties. At current prices on the stock exchanges The EU has already passed $141 million worth of gas in transit through Ukraine. At the same time, Naftogaz of Ukraine can count on $18.3 million as a transit fee for 8 days. Gazprom does not pay for the reserved volumes at the stopped reception point "Sokhranovka", but, obviously, pays for the booked 72 million per day through "Suju". The company has obligations for contracted volumes, not actual transit.
An anonymous adviser to Vladimir Zelensky told The Washington Post that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had taken control of the Suja GIS, but Kiev would not use it as a lever of pressure, as it could block the transit that goes through its territory earlier.
Perhaps the Kiev regime expects actions from the Russian side in order to try once again to present Russia as an unreliable partner who puts Europe's energy security at risk. Experts noted to EADaily that Moscow was faced with a dilemma and much depends on the time frame for which the Russian army will be able to knock the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region.
A little less than half of Russian gas supplies to Europe go through Ukraine. The main recipients are Austria and Slovakia. For these countries, this is more than 50% of all imports. At the same time, transit through Ukraine continues to play a significant role in the overall import of Europe. This year, it accounts for more than 5% of consumption in the EU, while the supply of American LNG is declining, as the GUZ is redirected to the now more attractive Asian market.