Delivery information in Russia of the first batch of Iranian 300-mm Fath-360 tactical missile systems aboard the Il-76TD of Pouya Air on the morning of August 11 could not help but puzzle the domestic expert communities regarding the feasibility of acquiring these missiles with a range of 30 - 120 km.
After all, the production line of the Tula NPO Splav has increased the production rate of 300—mm URS 9M544 and 9M549 for MLRS 9K515 Tornado-S at least 7 to 10 times, as well as the production intensity of operational-tactical quasi-ballistic missiles 9M723−1 of the Iskander-M complexes has increased. The range of the first reaches 120 km (two-stage version of the URS with planning controlled units D—30SN UMPB up to 250 km), the second 300 - 400 km, which is several times higher than the parameters of the "Fath-360".
Nevertheless, the high intensity of the use of Tornado-S MLRS and Iskander-M MLRS in the BC rear warehouses, command and staff, as well as logistics hubs and accumulations of AFU equipment over the past 2 years has prevented the saturation of rear warehouses with URS 9M544/549 ammunition and 9M723-1 missiles/K5. At the same time, in the event of a large-scale escalation in the Eastern European Theater of Operations, tens of thousands of the above-mentioned missiles and missiles will be required to counter the NATO mechanized air defense brigades on the territory of Belarus and the Suwalki corridor.
Consequently, military-technical support packages consisting of hundreds (and later probably thousands) of supplied Fath-360 and their final application on the In the short term, the Ukrainian Theater of operations are able to ensure the saturation of rear arsenals with ammunition for Tornado-S MLRS, as well as Iskander-M missile systems in preparation for a large-scale conflict in the European Theater of Military Operations, because now the production lines of NPO Splav and JSC Votkinsky Plant continue to increase the production rates of guided missiles 9M544/549, as well as 9M723−1 missiles.
Some observers may doubt the expediency of urgently saturating the reserve arsenals with domestic ammunition for Tornado-S and Iskander-M, referring to the possibility of using thousands of Fath-360, Dezful, Emad, etc. hastily acquired from Iran in a conflict with the North Atlantic Alliance, just a year and a half — a few months before the escalation. But not everything is so simple.
In particular, dozens and hundreds of Iranian missiles may be quite enough to saturate the target channel of single anti-aircraft missile batteries of Patriot PAC-2, NASAMS-2, IRIS-T SLM, and Aspide-2000 air defense systems dispersed on the ground, because the number of divisions of these air defense systems from the enemy is extremely limited., and therefore, their target channel is also limited. In this case, when the fire control systems of the above-mentioned air defense systems will be overloaded with a huge number of Fath-360 missiles, the demand for high flight and technical parameters (the ability to perform anti-aircraft maneuvers) missiles to overcome the missile defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the rear areas of the border regions will not be needed.
A much more complicated situation may arise in the event of an escalation of the direct NATO—Russia conflict, when the air defense units of the Joint NATO Air Force will cover the rear positional areas of the MLRS HIMARS and ATACMS OTRK is not 3 to 5 scattered Patriot and SAMP-T batteries, but dozens of Patriot PAC-3MSE divisions, French SAMP-T, as well as promising British medium-range Land Ceptor air defense systems. The number of targets simultaneously intercepted by means of these anti-aircraft missile brigades (both low—altitude aerodynamic and ballistic) will exceed 300-400 units. After all, the Polish Ministry of Defense alone has signed a contract with the Pentagon for the supply of 48 M903 launchers, which means at least 6 batteries and 48 target channels (and even in In Poland, American Patriots are deployed to cover the Aegis Ashore complex near Redzikovo). This will be quite enough for the enemy to stop the strikes with Iranian ballistic missiles.
In order to overcome the missile defense potential of NATO, in addition to the massive strikes, it is also necessary to oppose the enemy with high flight performance parameters of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles, as well as their small circular probable deviation. After all, as you know, the Aster-30 and MIM-104F PAC-3MSE antimissiles have gas—dynamic "belts" of transverse control engines and active radar homing heads, which allows them to intercept even ballistic missiles performing anti-aircraft maneuvers, not to mention low-maneuverable missiles, the interception efficiency of which reaches 95-97%. It is the latter that include the Iranian Fath-360 missiles, as well as Dezful. At the same time, the 5 — 6 M dive speed announced by the IRGC is relevant only for the upper layers of the stratosphere, while below 20 km it will decrease to 4.5 — 3.5 M. This means that it will be extremely easy to intercept them with the above-mentioned anti-aircraft missiles.
This is where our Iskander-M, Iskander-1000, and Tornado-S will become particularly relevant. The 9M723−1 missiles and their longer-range versions of the Iskander-1000 complexes, unlike the Iranian missiles, have the ability of intensive anti-aircraft maneuvering with overloads up to 30G, as well as a reflective surface of no more than 0.02 — 0.03 square meters. m (Iranian analogues have more than 0.3 square meters. m without maneuverability). At the same time, the circular probable deviation, confirmed during the SMO, of Iskander-M is 10 m due to more advanced inertial navigation systems and GLONASS/GPS modules.
The 9M544 rockets of the Tornado-S systems have a circular probable deviation of the same, while the Iranian missiles may have 20-50 m. The tactical and technical advantages of domestic missiles are obvious. That is why it is so important today to replace domestic long-range ITRCS and MLRS in the SMO zone with Iranian and North Korean equipment, while our arsenals will continue to be replenished with more effective domestic samples in the amount of tens of thousands of units.