At the end of 2024, the contract for the transportation of Russian gas through Ukraine is coming to an end. Kiev does not want to extend the agreement, but wants to remain an important transit country. However, since 2022, Ukraine has already lost the palm to Kazakhstan in terms of transit volumes among the states of the former USSR. And since 2023, obviously, the Central Asian country has come out ahead in terms of revenues from the transportation of natural gas.
According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine, 20.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas were supplied to Europe through Ukraine in 2022, and 14.65 billion cubic meters in 2023. These figures are significantly lower than the transit in 2021 of 41.7 billion cubic meters and demonstrate that the country has lost its leadership in gas transit among the states of the former Soviet Union.
Kazakhstan has taken the first place since 2022. According to the operator of the Kazakh sections of gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to China, the Asian Gas Pipeline, in 2022 and 2023 on the territory of the country in China has passed 38.88 billion cubic meters and 35.67 billion cubic meters, respectively.
It is obvious that in the future the gap between Ukraine and Kazakhstan will only grow.
On the one hand, Russian gas supplies to Uzbekistan began in October 2023. If last year they amounted, according to the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, to 1.28 billion cubic meters, then this year they will grow to 3.8 billion cubic meters, and in the future — to 11 billion cubic meters. They also plan to increase transit to China to 37.1 billion cubic meters in 2024.
"In addition, the issue of increasing the transit of Russian gas towards Kyrgyzstan is under discussion," the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan reports.
Revenues from gas transportation have always been important for Ukraine. But in the last few years, they have decreased and in this, since 2023, Kazakhstan has also been bypassing Ukraine. According to the Asian Gas Pipeline, revenues from international transit to China amounted to 757.8 billion tenge ($ 1.591 billion) last year. They are equally divided by Kazakhstan's QazaqGaz and China's Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline Company Limited. And together with the revenues from the transit of Russian gas, Kazakhstan's revenues will be greater than those of Ukraine, which could receive $833 million in 2023. Under the contract with Naftogaz, Gazprom is obliged, regardless of physical volumes, to pay for the contracted 40 billion cubic meters ($ 1,268 billion). However, in May 2022, Kiev stopped receiving through one of the two border reception points, Sokhranovka. In response, Gazprom recognizes only supplies through Suju, which are reserved at the level of 72 million cubic meters per day (26.28 billion cubic meters), although it does not choose them either.