By early February, Germany's gas storage facilities may be empty and the country will receive a new full-fledged energy crisis if there is a cold winter. This was warned by the association of German gas storage operators Initiative Energien Speichern e.V. (INES).
"If extremely low temperatures occur in winter, then by the beginning of February 2025, the gas storage facilities will be completely depleted. The level of consumption characterized by current savings can no longer be fully covered in this gas scenario," INES reports with reference to its own July report.
The basic scenarios show that by the beginning of the heating season, the storage facilities can be completely filled — by 23.5 billion cubic meters, the association noted. At the same time, INES noted that due to a decrease in temperature, gas consumption will increase significantly from October.
"At normal temperatures, gas consumption in October is already doubling compared to the previous month. After a month, the average monthly gas consumption increases to such an extent that the first extraction from the storage is required at normal temperatures," INES continued.
They predict that in the case of a normal or warm winter, the filling of German UGS will decrease to 35-69% by April. And with a cold winter, Germany will experience a significant fuel shortage in February and March, as storage stocks will run out in early February.
"According to calculations, gas shortages occur at extremely low temperatures and account for about 20 percent of gas consumption in Germany on some days," the association of UGS operators in Germany reports.
Sebastian Heinermann, Managing Director of INES, noted that, as in the previous two winters, extremely low temperatures will create problems for gas supply.
"The worst is not over yet. The reliability of gas supply, to which we were accustomed before the energy crisis in Germany, has not yet been fully restored. Therefore, saving consumption will remain an urgent topic in the coming winter," said Sebastian Heinermann.
The association believes that the winter of 2009-2010 may repeat in Germany.
As EADaily reported, Germany has not received Russian pipeline gas since the end of August 2022. German companies import the main volumes from Norway and through LNG terminals. However, the country has not been able to find a full-fledged replacement for Gazprom, which is able to supply huge volumes and quickly increase supplies depending on demand.